Everton vs Arsenal – 20 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 20 · 20:00 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 10th · 24 pts · 16 played WLWWL

0–1Full time

Arsenal 2nd · 36 pts · 16 played WDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 69). Arsenal usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Everton had 7.2 days of rest, Arsenal 7 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton18%

Draw22%

Arsenal61%

Expected goals 1.02 – 2.06

Everton19%

Draw24%

Arsenal57%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.85

Everton18%

Draw22%

Arsenal60%

Expected goals 1.02 – 2.00

Everton13%

Draw19%

Arsenal68%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.30

Everton18%

Draw23%

Arsenal58%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.90

Over 2.5 59% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 71

Team strength

Everton

Arsenal

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

61 AttackIn forecast 86

66 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Arsenal

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88

1.19 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.62

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

69% Scored inContext 94%

38% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.63 ShotsContext 14.56

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.13

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 10.88

68% Box shareContext 74%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.91 OffsidesContext 2.18

13.19 Shots allowedContext 7.44

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.77

4.69 BlocksContext 3.31

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

66% Save rateContext 77%

44% PossessionIn forecast 59%

379 PassesContext 498

302 Accurate passesContext 425

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.06

10.81 FoulsContext 10.06

12.13 Fouls sufferedContext 11.06

2.06 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

70% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.10 ShotsContext 14.30

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

30% On target shareContext 49%

6.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

67% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.30 Shots allowedContext 7.70

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.25

3.90 BlocksContext 3.00

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

66% Save rateContext 75%

43% PossessionIn forecast 57%

379 PassesContext 463

304 Accurate passesContext 392

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.91 Team ratingContext 7.04

11.40 FoulsContext 10.67

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec	7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 5	1 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 42T. Iroegbunam

18J. Grealish 24C. Alcaraz 7D. McNeil

11T. Barry

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 5P. Hincapié 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

19L. Trossard 14V. Gyökeres 7B. Saka

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton-0.5 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Arsenal+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.13

Arsenal · Away 1.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 0.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Everton	Arsenal
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 H
Newcastle	L 1–4 H	W 2–1 A
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 A
Tottenham	L 0–3 H	W 4–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Aston Villa	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Leeds	L 0–1 A	W 5–0 H
Points	18 of 42 · 1.29 per game	30 of 42 · 2.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Everton wins2 draws4 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.90 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 30%

5 Apr 2025Everton1–1Arsenal
14 Dec 2024Arsenal0–0Everton
19 May 2024Arsenal2–1Everton
17 Sep 2023Everton0–1Arsenal
1 Mar 2023Arsenal4–0Everton
4 Feb 2023Everton1–0Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.88
Conceded per game	1.19	0.63
Match goals	2.31	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	44%	59%
Over 3.5	13%	19%
Both teams scored	38%	44%	56%
Clean sheets	38%	50%
Failed to score	31%	6%
Games	16	16

	Everton	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.80
Conceded per game	1.30	0.70
Match goals	2.40	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	59%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	5.93
Corners conceded	5.00	3.27
Match total	9.56	9.20	9.86
Over 8.5	63% 10/16	47% 7/15
Over 9.5	44% 7/16	47% 7/15
Over 10.5	38% 6/16	47% 7/15
Cards
Cards	2.13	1.25
Opponent cards	1.81	1.63
Match total	3.94	2.88	3.86
Over 3.5	56% 9/16	31% 5/16
Over 4.5	50% 8/16	13% 2/16

	Everton	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.33
Corners conceded	5.60	2.56
Match total	10.60	6.89	9.86
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.00
Opponent cards	1.70	2.00
Match total	3.50	4.00	3.86
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.69

Red cards0.07league 0.12

Cards 5+32%league 39%

Fouls20.5league 22.0

Penalties0.24league 0.19

Home wins39%league 48%

Everton4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

D29 Sep 25H · West Ham1–13
L15 Jan 25H · Aston Villa0–12
L30 Mar 24A · Bournemouth1–22
W11 Nov 23A · Crystal Palace3–24

Arsenal4 with this referee

Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 Dec 24H · Manchester United2–01
W28 Sep 24H · Leicester4–22
W4 Mar 24A · Sheffield Utd6–00
W5 Dec 23A · Luton4–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.