Premier League Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00 Goodison Park, Liverpool
Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days5.7 · 3.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Everton—%
Draw—%
Liverpool—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Liverpool)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Everton and Liverpool. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

EvertonLiverpool
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 84
61 AttackIn forecast 85
66 DefenceIn forecast 84
50 Form indexContext 87
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

EvertonLiverpool
1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
71% Scored inContext 71%
43% Clean sheetsContext 43%
14.43 ShotsContext 15.71
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
35% On target shareContext 32%
10.83 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
68% Box shareContext 55%
8% ConversionContext 8%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.14
13.71 Shots allowedContext 11.86
4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
5.00 BlocksContext 3.86
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
70% Save rateContext 67%
47% PossessionIn forecast 56%
433 PassesContext 482
361 Accurate passesContext 408
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.90
7.43 FoulsContext 13.86
13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.89
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.09
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.40 ShotsContext 17.40
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
34% On target shareContext 33%
9.89 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
70% Box shareContext 62%
8% ConversionContext 10%
2.25 OffsidesContext 2.50
14.40 Shots allowedContext 11.50
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
5.44 BlocksContext 3.20
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
70% Save rateContext 62%
47% PossessionIn forecast 56%
414 PassesContext 487
342 Accurate passesContext 417
83% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.99
9.70 FoulsContext 12.10
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts
Liverpool
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km975 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Everton Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Nov3.7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways560 km975 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 32 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.33.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Everton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Liverpool · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentEvertonLiverpool
Ipswich W 1–0 H W 2–0 A
Bournemouth D 1–1 A W 1–0 A
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Everton wins2 draws7 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.70 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 50%
  • 19 Apr 2026Everton1–2Liverpool
  • 20 Sep 2025Liverpool2–1Everton
  • 2 Apr 2025Liverpool1–0Everton
  • 12 Feb 2025Everton2–2Liverpool
  • 24 Apr 2024Everton2–0Liverpool
  • 21 Oct 2023Liverpool2–0Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

EvertonLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.141.29
Conceded per game 1.001.14
Match goals 2.142.43
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 29%57%
Over 3.5 29%29%
Both teams scored 43%43%
Clean sheets 43%43%
Failed to score 29%29%
Games77
EvertonLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.101.80
Conceded per game 1.301.30
Match goals 2.403.10
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 40%60%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

EvertonLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won5.334.86
Corners conceded6.004.43
Match total11.339.299.49
Over 8.567% 4/643% 3/7
Over 9.567% 4/643% 3/7
Over 10.567% 4/643% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.712.71
Opponent cards2.292.43
Match total4.005.144.17
Over 3.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
EvertonLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won5.786.60
Corners conceded5.564.10
Match total11.3410.709.49
Over 8.567% 6/960% 6/10
Over 9.567% 6/960% 6/10
Over 10.567% 6/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.902.20
Opponent cards1.902.20
Match total3.804.404.17
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest Chelsea Nov 2720:00 Manchester United Brentford Nov 2815:00 Leeds Coventry Nov 2815:00 Ipswich Aston Villa Nov 2817:30 Everton Liverpool Nov 2912:00 Fulham Bournemouth Nov 2914:05 Brighton Newcastle Nov 2914:05 Crystal Palace Hull City Nov 2914:05 Sunderland Tottenham Nov 2914:05 Arsenal Manchester City Nov 2916:30