Premier League Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 28 · 15:00 Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United 13th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Brentford 6th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel257 kmRest days2.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Manchester United—%
Draw—%
Brentford—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester United and Brentford. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester UnitedBrentford
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
72 AttackIn forecast 73
80 DefenceIn forecast 73
38 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester UnitedBrentford
1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.73
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
71% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 29%
19.57 ShotsContext 15.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
26% On target shareContext 28%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.43
55% Box shareContext 76%
7% ConversionContext 12%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.60
11.00 Shots allowedContext 15.43
4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.86 BlocksContext 4.43
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
68% Save rateContext 71%
55% PossessionIn forecast 45%
521 PassesContext 367
450 Accurate passesContext 283
86% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.85
9.57 FoulsContext 14.71
11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 9.29
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
70% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.60 ShotsContext 13.40
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
31% On target shareContext 27%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
60% Box shareContext 74%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.29 OffsidesContext 1.71
11.00 Shots allowedContext 17.30
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
3.20 BlocksContext 5.30
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
69% Save rateContext 72%
53% PossessionIn forecast 45%
507 PassesContext 369
439 Accurate passesContext 286
87% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.00 FoulsContext 13.30
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,546 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts
Brentford
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel257 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Liverpool1–21.5 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Aston Villa2–21.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Chelsea3–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester United Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 18Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov4.8Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km257 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,546 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 2 / 41 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one4.24.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Brentford Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 1–2, 17 Oct
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara
9Thiago

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Brentford Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Brentford · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentManchester UnitedBrentford
Leeds D 1–1 A D 1–1 A
Tottenham D 1–1 H W 3–0 H
Points2 of 6 · 1.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Manchester United wins1 draws3 Brentford wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.60 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%
  • 27 Apr 2026Manchester United2–1Brentford
  • 27 Sep 2025Brentford3–1Manchester United
  • 4 May 2025Brentford4–3Manchester United
  • 19 Oct 2024Manchester United2–1Brentford
  • 30 Mar 2024Brentford1–1Manchester United
  • 7 Oct 2023Manchester United2–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester UnitedBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 1.431.86
Conceded per game 1.431.14
Match goals 2.863.00
Over 1.5 86%100%
Over 2.5 29%71%
Over 3.5 29%29%
Both teams scored 71%71%
Clean sheets 0%29%
Failed to score 29%0%
Games77
Manchester UnitedBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 1.701.60
Conceded per game 1.201.40
Match goals 2.903.00
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 40%70%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 50%70%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester UnitedBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.143.86
Corners conceded3.575.14
Match total9.719.009.49
Over 8.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.713.00
Opponent cards2.861.86
Match total4.574.864.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/757% 4/7
Manchester UnitedBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.00
Corners conceded3.226.40
Match total9.1110.409.49
Over 8.544% 4/970% 7/10
Over 9.533% 3/970% 7/10
Over 10.533% 3/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.602.70
Opponent cards2.302.20
Match total3.904.904.17
Over 3.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester United7 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
16-30
4 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
16-30
5 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest Chelsea Nov 2720:00 Manchester United Brentford Nov 2815:00 Leeds Coventry Nov 2815:00 Ipswich Aston Villa Nov 2817:30 Everton Liverpool Nov 2912:00 Fulham Bournemouth Nov 2914:05 Brighton Newcastle Nov 2914:05 Crystal Palace Hull City Nov 2914:05 Sunderland Tottenham Nov 2914:05 Arsenal Manchester City Nov 2916:30