Premier League Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 28 · 15:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Coventry 17th · 6 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel155 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Leeds—%
Draw—%
Coventry—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Leeds and Coventry. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LeedsCoventry
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
73 Current StrengthIn forecast 51
69 AttackIn forecast 47
77 DefenceIn forecast 59
64 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Coventry

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LeedsCoventry
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.02
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
86% Scored inContext 43%
29% Clean sheetsContext 14%
12.00 ShotsContext 10.29
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29
33% On target shareContext 32%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.14
65% Box shareContext 64%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.00 Shots allowedContext 17.43
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71
5.17 BlocksContext 6.83
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14
86% Save rateContext 46%
47% PossessionIn forecast 38%
385 PassesContext 323
302 Accurate passesContext 247
78% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.71 FoulsContext 11.00
11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.14
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.61
80% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.50 ShotsContext 11.70
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
31% On target shareContext 33%
7.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
62% Box shareContext 62%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.40 OffsidesContext 2.33
14.90 Shots allowedContext 15.20
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
4.89 BlocksContext 5.78
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
77% Save rateContext 49%
46% PossessionIn forecast 45%
376 PassesContext 380
292 Accurate passesContext 304
78% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.91
11.90 FoulsContext 9.70
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts
Coventry
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel155 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L19 OctA · Tottenham1–31.0 xPts
  • W12 OctH · Newcastle4–11.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Nottingham Forest1–00.7 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Brighton0–51.1 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Manchester City0–10.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Leeds Coventry
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Nov7Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways544 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one4.24.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Coventry Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Tottenham (A) 1–3, 19 Oct
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva 2E. Pinnock 4B. Thomas 27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes 8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante 5J. Rudoni 7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Coventry Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.75
Coventry · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentLeedsCoventry
Arsenal L 1–2 A L 0–3 A
Newcastle W 4–1 H W 4–1 H
Brighton D 1–1 A L 0–5 H
Nottingham Forest W 1–0 A W 1–0 A
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Leeds wins1 draws1 Coventry wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 5 Feb 2025Coventry0–2Leeds
  • 28 Sep 2024Leeds3–0Coventry
  • 6 Apr 2024Coventry2–1Leeds
  • 16 Dec 2023Leeds1–1Coventry

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LeedsCoventryForecast
Scored per game 1.290.86
Conceded per game 0.862.00
Match goals 2.142.86
Over 1.5 71%57%
Over 2.5 29%57%
Over 3.5 14%43%
Both teams scored 71%29%
Clean sheets 29%14%
Failed to score 14%57%
Games77
LeedsCoventryForecast
Scored per game 1.100.86
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 2.102.86
Over 1.5 70%57%
Over 2.5 30%57%
Over 3.5 10%43%
Both teams scored 60%29%
Clean sheets 30%14%
Failed to score 20%57%
Games107

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LeedsCoventryLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.71
Corners conceded4.144.71
Match total8.148.429.49
Over 8.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 9.543% 3/714% 1/7
Over 10.529% 2/70% 0/7
Cards
Cards1.861.29
Opponent cards2.431.43
Match total4.292.724.17
Over 3.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 4.543% 3/714% 1/7
LeedsCoventryLeague
Corners
Corners won4.103.56
Corners conceded5.704.22
Match total9.807.789.49
Over 8.560% 6/1022% 2/9
Over 9.560% 6/1011% 1/9
Over 10.540% 4/100% 0/9
Cards
Cards1.801.20
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total3.802.704.17
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
6 3 46-60
3 61-75
7 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest Chelsea Nov 2720:00 Manchester United Brentford Nov 2815:00 Leeds Coventry Nov 2815:00 Ipswich Aston Villa Nov 2817:30 Everton Liverpool Nov 2912:00 Fulham Bournemouth Nov 2914:05 Brighton Newcastle Nov 2914:05 Crystal Palace Hull City Nov 2914:05 Sunderland Tottenham Nov 2914:05 Arsenal Manchester City Nov 2916:30