Premier League Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 28 · 17:30 Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk
Ipswich 10th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel213 kmRest days7.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Ipswich—%
Draw—%
Aston Villa—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ipswich and Aston Villa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

IpswichAston Villa
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
59 AttackIn forecast 83
50 DefenceIn forecast 78
64 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ipswich

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

IpswichAston Villa
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
71% Scored inContext 57%
0% Clean sheetsContext 29%
11.00 ShotsContext 11.86
4.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
40% On target shareContext 27%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
66% Box shareContext 64%
14% ConversionContext 8%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.75
16.86 Shots allowedContext 15.86
5.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
5.00 BlocksContext 3.83
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
59% Save rateContext 71%
43% PossessionIn forecast 48%
401 PassesContext 410
331 Accurate passesContext 339
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.65 Team ratingContext 6.72
11.71 FoulsContext 10.71
9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.10 ShotsContext 13.60
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
41% On target shareContext 35%
7.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
67% Box shareContext 65%
13% ConversionContext 13%
2.38 OffsidesContext 1.57
16.00 Shots allowedContext 15.60
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
5.10 BlocksContext 4.22
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
66% Save rateContext 73%
46% PossessionIn forecast 46%
396 PassesContext 404
323 Accurate passesContext 340
82% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.91
11.70 FoulsContext 10.50
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ipswich
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km215 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Manchester City2–30.4 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Fulham2–11.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Everton0–10.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Crystal Palace3–20.8 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Liverpool0–20.9 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel213 km5,291 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ipswich Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Nov4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km213 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways215 km5,291 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one4.14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ipswich Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester City (A) 2–3, 17 Oct
28C. Walton(G)
24J. Greaves 6I. Diop 26D. O'Shea
3L. Davis 25E. Palacios 12Florentino 42A. Ouattara
10J. Enciso 38D. Maeda
19Emersonn
Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ipswich Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ipswich · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33
Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Ipswich wins2 draws0 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 15 Feb 2025Aston Villa1–1Ipswich
  • 29 Sep 2024Ipswich2–2Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

IpswichAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.571.00
Conceded per game 2.141.57
Match goals 3.712.57
Over 1.5 86%57%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 43%43%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 0%29%
Failed to score 29%43%
Games77
IpswichAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.571.80
Conceded per game 2.141.40
Match goals 3.713.20
Over 1.5 86%70%
Over 2.5 71%70%
Over 3.5 43%50%
Both teams scored 71%50%
Clean sheets 0%30%
Failed to score 29%30%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

IpswichAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.293.14
Corners conceded4.864.29
Match total8.157.439.49
Over 8.529% 2/729% 2/7
Over 9.514% 1/714% 1/7
Over 10.514% 1/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards1.862.14
Opponent cards2.293.14
Match total4.155.284.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
IpswichAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.204.00
Corners conceded4.305.00
Match total8.509.009.49
Over 8.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 9.520% 2/1030% 3/10
Over 10.520% 2/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.001.80
Opponent cards1.902.80
Match total3.904.604.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ipswich7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
4 61-75
6 1 76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2 4 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
8 2 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest Chelsea Nov 2720:00 Manchester United Brentford Nov 2815:00 Leeds Coventry Nov 2815:00 Ipswich Aston Villa Nov 2817:30 Everton Liverpool Nov 2912:00 Fulham Bournemouth Nov 2914:05 Brighton Newcastle Nov 2914:05 Crystal Palace Hull City Nov 2914:05 Sunderland Tottenham Nov 2914:05 Arsenal Manchester City Nov 2916:30