Everton vs Newcastle – 29 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 29 · 17:30 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 12th · 18 pts · 12 played LLDWW

1–4Full time

Newcastle 14th · 15 pts · 12 played LWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 69). Everton had 4.9 days of rest, Newcastle 7 and had to travel 195 km.

Away travel195 kmRest days4.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton36%

Draw27%

Newcastle37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.41

Everton37%

Draw27%

Newcastle36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Everton37%

Draw27%

Newcastle37%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.39

Everton29%

Draw26%

Newcastle45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.58

Everton37%

Draw27%

Newcastle36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.35

Over 2.5 53% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 131

Team strength

Everton

Newcastle

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

61 AttackIn forecast 61

66 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Newcastle

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.08

1.08 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

67% Scored inContext 75%

33% Clean sheetsContext 42%

10.42 ShotsContext 11.67

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

29% On target shareContext 32%

6.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.08

66% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.08 Shots allowedContext 11.17

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.33 BlocksContext 3.90

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

70% Save rateContext 74%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

374 PassesContext 420

296 Accurate passesContext 342

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.58 FoulsContext 11.82

12.17 Fouls sufferedContext 12.42

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.17

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.70 ShotsContext 13.40

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

30% On target shareContext 41%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

67% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 12.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.90 BlocksContext 3.78

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

67% Save rateContext 79%

44% PossessionIn forecast 52%

372 PassesContext 445

296 Accurate passesContext 372

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.20 FoulsContext 11.75

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel195 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Nov	7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

42T. Iroegbunam 37J. Garner

18J. Grealish 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 33D. Burn 12M. Thiaw 21V. Livramento

7Joelinton 39Bruno Guimarães 67L. Miley

11H. Barnes 27N. Woltemade 20A. Elanga

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton-0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Newcastle+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.83points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-1
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 0.83

Newcastle · Away 0.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Everton	Newcastle
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
Aston Villa	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 A
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 H
Brighton	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 A
Leeds	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Points	11 of 24 · 1.38 per game	11 of 24 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Everton wins2 draws5 Newcastle wins

Goals per game0.90 – 1.30 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 30%

25 May 2025Newcastle0–1Everton
5 Oct 2024Everton0–0Newcastle
2 Apr 2024Newcastle1–1Everton
7 Dec 2023Everton3–0Newcastle
27 Apr 2023Everton1–4Newcastle
19 Oct 2022Newcastle1–0Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.08
Conceded per game	1.08	1.25
Match goals	2.17	2.33	2.81
Over 1.5	75%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	58%	53%
Over 3.5	8%	25%
Both teams scored	42%	58%	58%
Clean sheets	33%	42%
Failed to score	33%	25%
Games	12	12

	Everton	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	2.30	2.30	2.81
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	5.42
Corners conceded	5.42	5.33
Match total	9.25	10.75	9.89
Over 8.5	58% 7/12	67% 8/12
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	50% 6/12
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	42% 5/12
Cards
Cards	2.25	1.33
Opponent cards	1.83	2.08
Match total	4.08	3.41	3.85
Over 3.5	58% 7/12	42% 5/12
Over 4.5	50% 6/12	25% 3/12

	Everton	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	5.10
Corners conceded	5.60	6.50
Match total	9.80	11.60	9.89
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.40
Match total	4.00	3.60	3.85
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 131 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.98league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+39%league 41%

Fouls22.8league 22.0

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins43%league 53%

Everton14 with this referee

Record2-2-10 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds2

L26 Oct 25H · Tottenham0–32
D14 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–03
D5 Oct 24H · Newcastle0–01
L14 Sep 24A · Aston Villa2–34
L2 Mar 24H · West Ham1–31

Newcastle19 with this referee

Record6-8-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds2

L18 Oct 25A · Brighton1–21
D16 Aug 25A · Aston Villa0–01
D4 May 25A · Brighton1–11
L25 Nov 24H · West Ham0–21
D5 Oct 24A · Everton0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.