Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Everton were slight favourites.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 52). Everton had 9.3 days of rest, West Ham 9.2 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days9.3 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton55%
Draw24%
West Ham22%
Everton54%
Draw25%
West Ham21%
Everton54%
Draw24%
West Ham22%
Everton47%
Draw26%
West Ham28%
Everton54%
Draw24%
West Ham21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 64
Team strength
Everton
West Ham
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
61
AttackIn forecast
68
66
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonWest Ham
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
60%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.20
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
21%
On target shareContext
45%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
67%
Box shareContext
78%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
6.00
BlocksContext
3.60
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
67%
Save rateContext
44%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
366
PassesContext
417
283
Accurate passesContext
347
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.63
10.40
FoulsContext
9.20
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
10.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
40%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
69%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.30
BlocksContext
3.89
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
78%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
378
PassesContext
454
306
Accurate passesContext
383
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.70
FoulsContext
10.90
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.3Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 9.2Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
27I. Gueye
37J. Garner
18J. Grealish
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
9Beto
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
3M. Kilman
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
27S. Magassa
7C. Summerville
10Lucas Paquetá
18Mateus Fernandes
20J. Bowen
11N. Füllkrug
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- West Ham+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
West Ham · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Everton wins2 draws5 West Ham wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 15 Mar 2025Everton1–1West Ham
- 9 Nov 2024West Ham0–0Everton
- 2 Mar 2024Everton1–3West Ham
- 29 Oct 2023West Ham0–1Everton
- 21 Jan 2023West Ham2–0Everton
- 18 Sep 2022Everton1–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Everton | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 14.20 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Everton | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 12.44 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.80 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.75
Red cards0.08league 0.15
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls20.6league 22.0
Penalties0.23league 0.20
Home wins38%league 46%
Everton3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L15 Jan 25H · Aston Villa0–12
- L30 Mar 24A · Bournemouth1–22
- W11 Nov 23A · Crystal Palace3–24
West Ham4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–26
- L21 Sep 24H · Chelsea0–35
- D2 Jan 24H · Brighton0–01
- W25 Nov 23A · Burnley2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton5 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
West Ham5 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
