Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar – 14 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 14 · 17:45 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 12th · 26 pts · 22 played DDDDW

First leg1–1 1–2Full time

AZ Alkmaar 7th · 33 pts · 22 played LDWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Excelsior. Excelsior had 7.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 6.2 and had to travel 81 km.

Away travel81 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Excelsior34%

Draw27%

AZ Alkmaar39%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.38

Excelsior30%

Draw27%

AZ Alkmaar43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.48

Excelsior32%

Draw27%

AZ Alkmaar41%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.41

Excelsior27%

Draw27%

AZ Alkmaar46%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.54

Excelsior34%

Draw28%

AZ Alkmaar38%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.31

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.08
Matches 24

Team strength

Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

21 AttackIn forecast 52

18 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar

1.09 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.68

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

77% Scored inContext 95%

23% Clean sheetsContext 23%

11.09 ShotsContext 15.50

3.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.64

34% On target shareContext 36%

7.36 Shots in the boxContext 10.23

66% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.36 OffsidesContext 1.79

15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.27

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.55

4.45 BlocksContext 3.43

4.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

70% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

382 PassesContext 448

298 Accurate passesContext 369

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.59 FoulsContext 10.50

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.05

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.18

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.50 ShotsContext 15.90

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

36% On target shareContext 35%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

70% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.30 BlocksContext 2.50

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

72% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 55%

411 PassesContext 451

324 Accurate passesContext 370

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.70 FoulsContext 11.20

7.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km85 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AZ Alkmaar

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel81 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Feb	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	85 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	1 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes 23I. Yegoian 14L. Schouten

11G. de Regt 10N. Naujoks 30D. Sanches Fernandes

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

41J. Zoet(G)

15Mateo Chávez 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 34M. de Wit

56Rio Robbemond 20Kasper Boogaard

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 9T. Parrott 7Weslley Patati

19J. Hornkamp

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+1.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
AZ Alkmaar-1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 1.27points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-5
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 1.27

AZ Alkmaar · Away 1.45points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-5
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.45

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Ajax	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Twente	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Telstar	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H	L 1–5 H
PEC Zwolle	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H
Groningen	L 0–2 H	W 4–1 H
Heracles	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	L 3–4 A
Heerenveen	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 A
FC Volendam	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Utrecht	L 1–4 A	W 4–1 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 H	D 3–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–5 A	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Points	25 of 63 · 1.19 per game	32 of 63 · 1.52 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Excelsior wins2 draws0 AZ Alkmaar wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

21 Jan 2026AZ Alkmaar1–1Excelsior
4 Nov 2023Excelsior1–1AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.09	1.68
Conceded per game	1.68	1.64
Match goals	2.77	3.32	2.63
Over 1.5	77%	77%
Over 2.5	59%	64%	49%
Over 3.5	27%	50%
Both teams scored	59%	73%	54%
Clean sheets	23%	23%
Failed to score	23%	5%
Games	22	22

	Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	2.70	3.00	2.63
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.05	5.64
Corners conceded	5.36	4.09
Match total	9.41	9.73	10.26
Over 8.5	64% 14/22	68% 15/22
Over 9.5	41% 9/22	41% 9/22
Over 10.5	27% 6/22	27% 6/22
Cards
Cards	1.64	2.23
Opponent cards	1.41	1.50
Match total	3.05	3.73	3.53
Over 3.5	36% 8/22	45% 10/22
Over 4.5	27% 6/22	32% 7/22

	Excelsior	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	5.60
Corners conceded	5.70	3.90
Match total	9.10	9.50	10.26
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	3.30	3.20	3.53
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.21league 3.34

Red cards0.04league 0.20

Cards 5+13%league 31%

Fouls22.0league 21.7

Penalties0.08league 0.26

Home wins42%league 43%

Excelsior1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W23 Sep 23A · Heerenveen3–02

AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D7 Dec 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
D29 Mar 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–33
W1 Dec 24H · Heracles1–00
D3 Dec 23A · Utrecht1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.