Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Excelsior
12th · 26 pts · 22 played
DDDDW
First leg1–1
1–2Full time
AZ Alkmaar
7th · 33 pts · 22 played
LDWLD
Excelsior33.5%fair odds 2.98
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.64
AZ Alkmaar39.0%fair odds 2.56
Expected goals1.26 – 1.38total 2.63
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Excelsior ↓ · AZ Alkmaar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Excelsior goals, columns AZ Alkmaar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.64
- 0–19.2%10.83
- 1–28.5%11.70
- 1–08.4%11.93
- 0–07.8%12.74
- 2–17.8%12.80
- 0–26.8%14.70
- 2–05.7%17.60
- 2–25.4%18.61
- 1–33.9%25.51
Winning margin
5.0%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 20.15
9.8%
Excelsior by 2
fair 10.26
18.8%
Excelsior by 1
fair 5.32
27.5%
Draw
fair 3.64
20.6%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 4.85
11.7%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 8.57
6.7%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 14.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Excelsior goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
AZ Alkmaar goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 33.5% | 33.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.1% | -0.7 pp |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 39.0% | 38.2% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 46.4% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 52.2% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.26 | 1.22 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 1.38 | 1.31 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Excelsior win33.5%2.98
- Draw27.5%3.64
- AZ Alkmaar win39.0%2.56
- Double chance Excelsior or draw61.0%1.64
- Double chance Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar72.5%1.38
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw66.5%1.50
- Draw no bet Excelsior46.2%2.16
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar53.8%1.86
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.09
- Over 1.574.5%1.34
- Over 2.549.0%2.04
- Over 3.527.1%3.69
- Over 4.512.7%7.86
- Under 1.525.5%3.93
- Under 2.551.0%1.96
- Under 3.572.9%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
- Excelsior win and yes16.1%6.22
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes18.4%5.43
Team goals
- Excelsior over 0.571.6%1.40
- Excelsior over 1.535.8%2.79
- Excelsior over 2.513.3%7.51
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.574.7%1.34
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.540.0%2.50
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.516.1%6.23
- Excelsior clean sheet25.3%3.96
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Excelsior win to nil17.4%5.74
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil20.6%4.85
Handicap
- Excelsior −1.514.7%6.80
- Excelsior −2.55.0%20.15
- AZ Alkmaar +1.585.3%1.17
- AZ Alkmaar +2.595.0%1.05
- AZ Alkmaar −1.518.4%5.44
- Excelsior +1.581.6%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored200
Favourite won49.5%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.598
Over 2.5 called right63.0%
BTTS called right62.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 73 | 44.9% | 43.8% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 55.1% | 47.8% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 64.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 74.2% | 86.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 177 of 200 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6029 | 0.5981 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 48.6% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 177 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 200 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.