Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel128 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Excelsior—%
Draw—%
PEC Zwolle—%
Weather (Rotterdam)
Forecast from 20 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Excelsior and PEC Zwolle. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Excelsior
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Excelsior
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Excelsior
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
PEC Zwolle
−0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.20xG against1.90
-
Alert
PEC Zwolle
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Excelsior
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
PEC Zwolle
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
PEC Zwolle
−0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.20xG against1.90
-
Alert
Excelsior
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Excelsior
−0.42
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against1.89
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ExcelsiorPEC Zwolle
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
21
AttackIn forecast
17
18
DefenceIn forecast
14
11
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorPEC Zwolle
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.44
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
89%
Scored inContext
56%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.78
ShotsContext
12.00
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
70%
Box shareContext
59%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.67
Shots allowedContext
19.44
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.78
4.22
BlocksContext
5.78
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
64%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
390
PassesContext
348
309
Accurate passesContext
265
79%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.59
11.56
FoulsContext
11.22
7.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.89
1.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.30
ShotsContext
11.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
66%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.80
Shots allowedContext
19.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.90
4.50
BlocksContext
5.60
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
65%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
389
PassesContext
355
309
Accurate passesContext
271
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.60
11.80
FoulsContext
11.20
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
DLDLL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected
PEC Zwolle
DLLLW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel128 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Mar | 14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 128 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 162 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Last XI · not confirmed
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
2E. da Silva Moreira
20L. Hartjes
3R. Meissen
8I. Yegoian
30Á. Þorsteinsson
19D. Garden
7Aymen Sliti
PEC Zwolle
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus
24N. Viergever
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer
30R. Thomas
11D. Mbayo
25T. Oosting
37Gilles van der Wal
17S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PEC Zwolle
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
PEC Zwolle · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 A |
| Groningen | L 1–5 H | L 0–3 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Cambuur | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Excelsior wins1 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 12 Apr 2026PEC Zwolle2–2Excelsior
- 20 Dec 2025Excelsior2–1PEC Zwolle
- 22 Oct 2023Excelsior2–4PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.78 | 3.56 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Excelsior | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 11.55 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.78 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.44 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Excelsior | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 7.70 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 11.70 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Excelsior9 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
5
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
