Willem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel60 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Willem II—%
Draw—%
Utrecht—%
Weather (Tilburg)
Forecast from 20 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Willem II and Utrecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Utrecht
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Willem II
3.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Utrecht
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Willem II
−0.97
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.28xG against2.25
-
Alert
Willem II
2.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Utrecht
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Utrecht
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Willem II
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
Willem II
3.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Willem II
2.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Willem II
−0.97
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.28xG against2.25
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Utrecht
−0.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.38xG against1.65
Team strength
Willem IIUtrecht
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
10
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
10
AttackIn forecast
32
9
DefenceIn forecast
31
8
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Willem IIUtrecht
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
2.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.89
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
78%
Scored inContext
89%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.67
ShotsContext
12.89
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
24%
On target shareContext
34%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
68%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
20.33
Shots allowedContext
18.11
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.33
BlocksContext
4.33
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
57%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
356
PassesContext
391
276
Accurate passesContext
313
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.47
Team ratingContext
6.55
9.78
FoulsContext
16.33
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.67
ShotsContext
13.70
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
24%
On target shareContext
33%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
68%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
20.33
Shots allowedContext
17.60
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
4.33
BlocksContext
4.10
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
61%
Save rateContext
57%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
356
PassesContext
388
276
Accurate passesContext
312
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.47
Team ratingContext
6.60
9.78
FoulsContext
15.80
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Willem II
DLLLL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Utrecht
DWLWW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel60 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Willem II |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Mar | 14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 60 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Willem II
Last XI · not confirmed
26M. Delanghe(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
23M. Dekker
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
52T. Vilhena
18Anass Zarrouk
32Vito van Crooij
19U. van Aalst
7J. Slory
9D. Haen
Utrecht
Last XI · not confirmed
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
38O. Agougil
8J. van Overeem
23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Willem II
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Utrecht
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Willem II · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.50
Utrecht · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Willem II | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 2–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Excelsior | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 1–4 A | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Willem II wins0 draws3 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.67 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 11 Oct 2026Utrecht3–1Willem II
- 9 Mar 2025Willem II2–3Utrecht
- 21 Sep 2024Utrecht3–2Willem II
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Willem II | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.89 | 2.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.89 | 4.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 89% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Willem II | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.89 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.89 | 4.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 90% | |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 10% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Willem II | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.11 | 0.89 | |
| Match total | 2.44 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Willem II | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Willem II9 games · scored 9 · conceded 26
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
9
61-75
4
5
76-90
Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 10 · conceded 26
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
9
61-75
4
5
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
