Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. Famalicao had 5 days of rest, Arouca 7.1 and had to travel 58 km.
Away travel58 kmRest days5 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Famalicao47%
Draw27%
Arouca26%
Famalicao51%
Draw25%
Arouca23%
Famalicao47%
Draw27%
Arouca26%
Famalicao39%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
Famalicao47%
Draw27%
Arouca26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 75
Team strength
Famalicao
Arouca
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
28
36
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoArouca
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
67%
Scored inContext
71%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.79
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
5.96
64%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.53
OffsidesContext
2.14
10.96
Shots allowedContext
13.25
3.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.96
2.78
BlocksContext
4.05
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
79%
Save rateContext
58%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
384
PassesContext
399
313
Accurate passesContext
330
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.62
16.71
FoulsContext
13.33
16.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.63
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.80
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
31%
On target shareContext
40%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
54%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
2.70
BlocksContext
4.33
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
71%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
407
PassesContext
422
339
Accurate passesContext
351
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.50
FoulsContext
12.00
16.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km40 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel58 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 58 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 40 km | 78 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
8Marcos Peña
77A. Joujou
20Gustavo Sá
23Gil Dias
12S. Elisor
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
5B. Popović
6Diogo Monteiro
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Arouca · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Benfica | L 0–1 A | L 0–5 A |
| Estoril | W 4–0 H | L 3–4 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 35 of 69 · 1.52 per game | 25 of 69 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Famalicao wins2 draws3 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.43
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 5 Oct 2025Arouca1–1Famalicao
- 5 Apr 2025Arouca1–2Famalicao
- 9 Nov 2024Famalicao0–0Arouca
- 23 Feb 2024Arouca3–2Famalicao
- 22 Sep 2023Famalicao1–0Arouca
- 3 Apr 2023Famalicao0–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.08 | 3.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 71% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 54% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Famalicao | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.79 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.96 | 8.56 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 11/24 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.58 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.83 | 5.46 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 13/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Famalicao | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 7.50 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.80 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 4.85
Red cards0.44league 0.27
Cards 5+57%league 59%
Fouls27.7league 27.0
Penalties0.35league 0.45
Home wins60%league 42%
Famalicao6 with this referee
Record0-3-3
Cards · opp.4.3 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds4
- L13 Sep 25H · Sporting CP1–24
- D21 Sep 24A · Moreirense0–03
- L2 Dec 23H · FC Porto0–34
- D21 Aug 23H · Moreirense0–04
- D13 May 23A · Vizela0–05
Arouca2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D13 Apr 25A · Benfica2–23
- L8 Oct 23A · Sporting CP1–27
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao24 games · scored 29 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
Arouca23 games · scored 32 · conceded 47
6
6
0-15
1
7
16-30
6
12
31-45
8
7
46-60
9
5
61-75
2
10
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
