Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Famalicao27.0%fair odds 3.70
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Benfica45.7%fair odds 2.19
Expected goals1.08 – 1.48total 2.56
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Famalicao ↓ · Benfica → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Famalicao goals, columns Benfica goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.68
- 0–110.8%9.25
- 1–29.1%10.95
- 0–28.5%11.81
- 0–08.4%11.87
- 1–07.7%12.95
- 2–16.7%14.99
- 2–24.9%20.30
- 2–04.5%22.13
- 1–34.5%22.24
Winning margin
3.1%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 31.97
7.4%
Famalicao by 2
fair 13.43
16.4%
Famalicao by 1
fair 6.09
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
22.7%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.40
14.0%
Benfica by 2
fair 7.16
9.0%
Benfica by 3+
fair 11.14
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Famalicao goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Benfica goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 27.0% | 27.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Benfica win | 45.7% | 45.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | 48.9% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 53.1% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 1.08 | 1.12 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Benfica | 1.48 | 1.51 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Famalicao win27.0%3.70
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Benfica win45.7%2.19
- Double chance Famalicao or draw54.3%1.84
- Double chance Famalicao or Benfica72.7%1.38
- Double chance Benfica or draw73.0%1.37
- Draw no bet Famalicao37.2%2.69
- Draw no bet Benfica62.8%1.59
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.0%1.37
- Over 2.547.0%2.13
- Over 3.525.4%3.93
- Over 4.511.6%8.60
- Under 1.527.0%3.71
- Under 2.553.0%1.89
- Under 3.574.6%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.06
- Yes and over 2.538.5%2.59
- Famalicao win and yes12.6%7.95
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- Benfica win and yes20.1%4.98
Team goals
- Famalicao over 0.566.0%1.52
- Famalicao over 1.529.3%3.41
- Famalicao over 2.59.5%10.49
- Benfica over 0.577.2%1.30
- Benfica over 1.543.4%2.30
- Benfica over 2.518.5%5.40
- Famalicao clean sheet22.8%4.38
- Benfica clean sheet34.0%2.94
- Famalicao win to nil14.4%6.94
- Benfica win to nil25.6%3.91
Handicap
- Famalicao −1.510.6%9.46
- Famalicao −2.53.1%31.97
- Benfica +1.589.4%1.12
- Benfica +2.596.9%1.03
- Benfica −1.522.9%4.36
- Famalicao +1.577.1%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored282
Favourite won58.2%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.542
Over 2.5 called right56.0%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 53 | 37.6% | 43.4% |
| 40–50% | 90 | 44.7% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.6% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 38 | 65.0% | 81.6% |
| 70–80% | 32 | 75.3% | 81.3% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 83.9% | 90.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 229 of 282 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5297 | 0.5219 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.8% | 46.3% |
| Favourite won | 61.1% | 60.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 229 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 282 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.