Famalicao vs Benfica – 2 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 5th · 51 pts · 31 played WDDDW

2–2Full time

Benfica 2nd · 75 pts · 31 played WDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were slight favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Famalicao. Famalicao had 6.1 days of rest, Benfica 7 and had to travel 303 km.

Away travel303 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Famalicao27%

Draw27%

Benfica46%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.48

Famalicao21%

Draw25%

Benfica54%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.76

Famalicao27%

Draw27%

Benfica46%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.48

Famalicao21%

Draw26%

Benfica53%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.66

Famalicao27%

Draw27%

Benfica46%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.51

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.2
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 67

Team strength

Famalicao

Benfica

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

24 AttackIn forecast 81

36 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Benfica

1.26 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.16

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.65

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

74% Scored inContext 94%

48% Clean sheetsContext 45%

11.77 ShotsContext 16.48

4.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.81

35% On target shareContext 35%

8.17 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

65% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.14

10.35 Shots allowedContext 8.81

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.21

2.63 BlocksContext 2.42

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.64

80% Save rateContext 80%

51% PossessionIn forecast 59%

392 PassesContext 477

321 Accurate passesContext 405

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.02

15.61 FoulsContext 10.74

16.35 Fouls sufferedContext 15.52

2.58 Yellow cardsContext 1.97

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

80% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.30 ShotsContext 16.80

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

41% On target shareContext 32%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

65% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.83

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.30

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

2.70 BlocksContext 2.70

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

88% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 56%

401 PassesContext 449

330 Accurate passesContext 377

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.95

13.40 FoulsContext 10.40

16.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.60

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km655 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel303 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	303 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	655 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.1	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 17A. Dedić

8F. Aursnes 20Richard Ríos

21A. Schjelderup 18L. Barreiro 25G. Prestianni

9F. Ivanović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.80points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-3-4
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 0.67

Benfica · Away 2.47points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 11-4-0
Scored: 1.87
Conceded: 0.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Benfica
Estoril	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	W 3–1 H
SC Braga	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Moreirense	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 4–1 HW 4–0 A
FC Porto	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Nacional	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	W 2–0 HW 2–1 A
Guimaraes	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Arouca	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 AW 5–0 H
Rio Ave	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Sporting CP	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
AVS	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Tondela	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Alverca	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Estrela	L 2–3 H	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	51 of 90 · 1.70 per game	72 of 90 · 2.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Famalicao wins0 draws5 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.57 – 1.57 Over 2.529% Both scored0% Clean sheets29% · 71%

22 Dec 2025Benfica1–0Famalicao
17 Jan 2025Benfica4–0Famalicao
11 Aug 2024Famalicao2–0Benfica
5 May 2024Famalicao2–0Benfica
29 Dec 2023Benfica3–0Famalicao
3 Mar 2023Benfica2–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.26	2.16
Conceded per game	0.87	0.65
Match goals	2.13	2.81	2.56
Over 1.5	55%	87%
Over 2.5	39%	68%	47%
Over 3.5	23%	26%
Both teams scored	35%	55%	52%
Clean sheets	48%	45%
Failed to score	26%	6%
Games	31	31

	Famalicao	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.30
Conceded per game	0.70	0.80
Match goals	1.90	3.10	2.56
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.73	7.37
Corners conceded	5.03	2.53
Match total	9.76	9.90	9.34
Over 8.5	60% 18/30	63% 19/30
Over 9.5	47% 14/30	53% 16/30
Over 10.5	43% 13/30	40% 12/30
Cards
Cards	2.65	2.13
Opponent cards	2.32	2.94
Match total	4.97	5.07	5.10
Over 3.5	68% 21/31	68% 21/31
Over 4.5	55% 17/31	58% 18/31

	Famalicao	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	9.10
Corners conceded	5.67	3.10
Match total	10.11	12.20	9.34
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.90
Opponent cards	2.70	2.70
Match total	5.40	4.60	5.10
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 67 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.79league 4.83

Red cards0.40league 0.23

Cards 5+72%league 57%

Fouls28.6league 26.8

Penalties0.42league 0.44

Home wins37%league 41%

Famalicao6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.3.3 · 4.2 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D10 Apr 26H · Moreirense1–15
L1 Mar 25A · Nacional1–24
D13 Apr 24A · FC Porto2–23
D30 Sep 23A · Boavista2–26
L15 Jan 23A · FC Porto1–41

Benfica6 with this referee

Record5-1-0 Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 1

D9 Nov 25H · Casa Pia2–24
W19 Apr 25A · Guimaraes3–04
W19 Dec 24A · Nacional2–04
W22 Apr 24A · Farense3–12
W19 Jan 24H · Boavista2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.