Famalicao vs Estoril – 14 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Dec 14 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 7th · 20 pts · 13 played WWLDL

4–0Full time

Estoril 12th · 14 pts · 13 played DWWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 29). Famalicao had 7.8 days of rest, Estoril 7 and had to travel 310 km.

Away travel310 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Famalicao49%

Draw27%

Estoril24%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.04

Famalicao50%

Draw26%

Estoril24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.09

Famalicao49%

Draw27%

Estoril24%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.04

Famalicao42%

Draw28%

Estoril31%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.16

Famalicao50%

Draw26%

Estoril24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.09

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 31

Team strength

Famalicao

Estoril

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

24 AttackIn forecast 21

36 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Estoril

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.69

0.69 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.46

77% Scored inContext 69%

54% Clean sheetsContext 8%

12.46 ShotsContext 12.38

4.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

31% On target shareContext 32%

8.92 Shots in the boxContext 7.92

72% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.58

11.54 Shots allowedContext 11.08

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17

2.83 BlocksContext 2.50

3.31 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.42

83% Save rateContext 58%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

364 PassesContext 404

292 Accurate passesContext 322

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.79

18.15 FoulsContext 12.46

16.23 Fouls sufferedContext 12.77

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.92

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.10 ShotsContext 12.50

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

30% On target shareContext 31%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

74% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.56

10.90 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

2.60 BlocksContext 2.56

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

76% Save rateContext 60%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

366 PassesContext 415

293 Accurate passesContext 333

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.84

18.10 FoulsContext 12.30

16.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estoril

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel310 km560 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	560 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

21M. Zabiri

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Joel Robles(G)

25F. Bacher 44K. Boma 5A. Tsoungui

24Pedro Amaral 10J. Holsgrove 6Jandro Orellana 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 14Y. Begraoui 19André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.14points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.71

Estoril · Away 0.83points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-3
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Estoril
Moreirense	D 2–2 A	D 3–3 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Nacional	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Guimaraes	W 2–0 H	L 2–3 A
Arouca	D 1–1 A	W 4–3 H
Rio Ave	D 0–0 H	W 4–0 A
Casa Pia	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
AVS	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Tondela	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 A
Santa Clara	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 H
Points	20 of 36 · 1.67 per game	13 of 36 · 1.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Famalicao wins1 draws3 Estoril wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

12 Apr 2025Famalicao3–0Estoril
1 Dec 2024Estoril2–1Famalicao
28 Apr 2024Estoril1–0Famalicao
17 Dec 2023Famalicao1–1Estoril
29 Jan 2023Famalicao1–0Estoril
6 Aug 2022Estoril2–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.69
Conceded per game	0.69	1.62
Match goals	1.77	3.31	2.61
Over 1.5	54%	77%
Over 2.5	31%	54%	48%
Over 3.5	8%	54%
Both teams scored	38%	62%	52%
Clean sheets	54%	8%
Failed to score	23%	31%
Games	13	13

	Famalicao	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.70
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	1.90	3.20	2.61
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	4.18
Corners conceded	4.77	5.00
Match total	10.15	9.18	9.12
Over 8.5	69% 9/13	45% 5/11
Over 9.5	46% 6/13	45% 5/11
Over 10.5	46% 6/13	45% 5/11
Cards
Cards	3.08	2.92
Opponent cards	2.46	2.08
Match total	5.54	5.00	5.52
Over 3.5	77% 10/13	92% 12/13
Over 4.5	62% 8/13	62% 8/13

	Famalicao	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.50
Corners conceded	4.80	5.50
Match total	10.70	10.00	9.12
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	3.30	2.80
Opponent cards	2.90	2.10
Match total	6.20	4.90	5.52
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.42league 5.18

Red cards0.23league 0.29

Cards 5+48%league 63%

Fouls29.5league 27.5

Penalties0.35league 0.46

Home wins48%league 35%

Famalicao5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

W10 Mar 25H · Rio Ave1–01
L30 Dec 24H · Santa Clara1–23
L29 Oct 23A · Estrela0–14
D26 May 23A · Rio Ave2–25
L3 Apr 23H · Arouca0–11

Estoril6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 4

L21 Sep 25A · GIL Vicente0–22
W26 Oct 24H · Arouca4–14
L18 May 24A · Moreirense1–20
W10 Dec 23H · Chaves4–04
D21 May 23A · Casa Pia2–26

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.