Famalicao vs Estrela – 27 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 27 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 6th · 23 pts · 15 played LDLWL

2–3Full time

Estrela 14th · 15 pts · 15 played DLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 18). Famalicao had 4.9 days of rest, Estrela 6.9 and had to travel 301 km.

Away travel301 kmRest days4.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Famalicao59%

Draw24%

Estrela17%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.89

Famalicao60%

Draw23%

Estrela17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Famalicao59%

Draw24%

Estrela17%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.89

Famalicao51%

Draw26%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.61 – 0.99

Famalicao60%

Draw23%

Estrela17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Over 2.5 50% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 77

Team strength

Famalicao

Estrela

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

24 AttackIn forecast 24

36 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Estrela

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.47

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

73% Scored inContext 53%

53% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.33 ShotsContext 11.67

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.86

34% On target shareContext 31%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.13

70% Box shareContext 49%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.18

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.67

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.27

2.71 BlocksContext 3.53

3.47 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

84% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

370 PassesContext 349

298 Accurate passesContext 281

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.82

17.80 FoulsContext 13.53

16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.73

2.87 Yellow cardsContext 2.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.40 ShotsContext 11.90

5.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 34%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

67% Box shareContext 53%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.22

10.80 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.70 BlocksContext 3.70

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

81% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

376 PassesContext 368

304 Accurate passesContext 299

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.83

17.30 FoulsContext 13.90

16.10 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km606 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel301 km543 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Dec	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	301 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	606 km	543 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

21M. Zabiri

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

83Otávio 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick 17Jefferson Encada

63A. Sola 6Oumar Ngom

11Jovane Cabral 19Paulo Moreira 99A. Marcus

98Kikas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.38points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-3
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 0.63

Estrela · Away 0.86points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Estrela
Benfica	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Estoril	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 A
Moreirense	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
Nacional	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Guimaraes	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Arouca	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Rio Ave	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Casa Pia	D 1–1 A	W 5–3 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 0–4 A
AVS	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Tondela	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Santa Clara	W 3–0 H	D 0–0 A
Points	23 of 42 · 1.64 per game	14 of 42 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Famalicao wins2 draws1 Estrela wins

Goals per game0.75 – 0.25 Over 2.525% Both scored0% Clean sheets75% · 75%

25 Jan 2025Famalicao0–0Estrela
19 Aug 2024Estrela0–3Famalicao
16 Mar 2024Famalicao0–0Estrela
29 Oct 2023Estrela1–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.13
Conceded per game	0.67	1.47
Match goals	1.87	2.60	2.69
Over 1.5	53%	73%
Over 2.5	33%	47%	50%
Over 3.5	13%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	47%	50%
Clean sheets	53%	27%
Failed to score	27%	47%
Games	15	15

	Famalicao	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.60
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.69
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.07	4.08
Corners conceded	5.07	4.25
Match total	10.14	8.33	9.14
Over 8.5	67% 10/15	42% 5/12
Over 9.5	47% 7/15	25% 3/12
Over 10.5	47% 7/15	17% 2/12
Cards
Cards	2.93	2.60
Opponent cards	2.20	2.93
Match total	5.13	5.53	5.46
Over 3.5	73% 11/15	80% 12/15
Over 4.5	53% 8/15	73% 11/15

	Famalicao	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	3.88
Corners conceded	5.30	5.00
Match total	10.40	8.88	9.14
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.60
Opponent cards	2.60	3.00
Match total	5.50	5.60	5.46
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.92league 5.13

Red cards0.25league 0.30

Cards 5+60%league 61%

Fouls29.0league 27.4

Penalties0.30league 0.45

Home wins40%league 36%

Famalicao8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

D5 Oct 25A · Arouca1–11
W10 Aug 25H · Santa Clara3–03
W23 Feb 25H · Moreirense2–03
D7 Dec 24H · FC Porto1–12
W3 Nov 24A · AVS3–21

Estrela4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

L25 Oct 25H · Rio Ave1–23
W14 Feb 25A · Boavista1–02
L11 May 24A · Vizela0–42
D14 Apr 24H · Rio Ave2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.