Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Famalicao24.8%fair odds 4.04
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
FC Porto48.9%fair odds 2.04
Expected goals1.06 – 1.59total 2.65
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Famalicao ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Famalicao goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.98
- 0–110.6%9.47
- 1–29.5%10.56
- 0–28.9%11.24
- 0–07.7%13.04
- 1–06.9%14.59
- 2–16.3%15.80
- 2–25.0%19.86
- 1–35.0%19.93
- 0–34.7%21.20
Winning margin
2.8%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 36.14
6.8%
Famalicao by 2
fair 14.80
15.2%
Famalicao by 1
fair 6.56
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
23.1%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.33
15.1%
FC Porto by 2
fair 6.62
10.7%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 9.32
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Famalicao goals
35%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
FC Porto goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 24.8% | 25.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.9% | +0.4 pp |
| FC Porto win | 48.9% | 49.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.5% | 51.3% | -1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.8% | 54.2% | -1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 1.06 | 1.10 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 1.59 | 1.63 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Famalicao win24.8%4.04
- Draw26.3%3.80
- FC Porto win48.9%2.04
- Double chance Famalicao or draw51.1%1.96
- Double chance Famalicao or FC Porto73.7%1.36
- Double chance FC Porto or draw75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet Famalicao33.6%2.98
- Draw no bet FC Porto66.4%1.51
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.9%1.33
- Over 2.549.5%2.02
- Over 3.527.6%3.63
- Over 4.513.0%7.67
- Under 1.525.1%3.99
- Under 2.550.5%1.98
- Under 3.572.4%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes52.8%1.90
- No47.2%2.12
- Yes and over 2.540.2%2.49
- Famalicao win and yes12.1%8.30
- Draw and yes18.6%5.37
- FC Porto win and yes22.1%4.53
Team goals
- Famalicao over 0.565.5%1.53
- Famalicao over 1.528.8%3.48
- Famalicao over 2.59.2%10.82
- FC Porto over 0.579.6%1.26
- FC Porto over 1.547.2%2.12
- FC Porto over 2.521.4%4.67
- Famalicao clean sheet20.4%4.91
- FC Porto clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Famalicao win to nil12.7%7.86
- FC Porto win to nil26.9%3.72
Handicap
- Famalicao −1.59.5%10.50
- Famalicao −2.52.8%36.14
- FC Porto +1.590.5%1.11
- FC Porto +2.597.2%1.03
- FC Porto −1.525.8%3.87
- Famalicao +1.574.2%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored96
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 37.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 35 | 45.0% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 53.9% | 60.9% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.9% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 75.2% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 67 of 96 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5606 | 0.5393 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.5% | 44.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 67 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 96 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.