Famalicao vs FC Porto – 9 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 5th · 19 pts · 10 played DDDWW

0–1Full time

FC Porto 2nd · 28 pts · 10 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 40). Famalicao had 8.1 days of rest, FC Porto 3 and had to travel 30 km.

Away travel30 kmRest days8.1 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 3

Famalicao25%

Draw26%

FC Porto49%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.59

Famalicao25%

Draw26%

FC Porto49%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.63

Famalicao25%

Draw26%

FC Porto49%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.59

Famalicao19%

Draw24%

FC Porto56%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.78

Famalicao25%

Draw26%

FC Porto49%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.63

Over 2.5 50% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

RefereeJosé Bessa

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 23

Team strength

Famalicao

FC Porto

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 78

24 AttackIn forecast 69

36 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

FC Porto

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.30

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.46

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

80% Scored inContext 90%

70% Clean sheetsContext 70%

13.40 ShotsContext 14.40

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

29% On target shareContext 39%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

75% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

9.90 Shots allowedContext 8.90

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

2.56 BlocksContext 3.20

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.63

88% Save rateContext 87%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

363 PassesContext 432

291 Accurate passesContext 366

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.98

18.10 FoulsContext 13.70

16.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.62

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

80% Scored inContext 80%

70% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.40 ShotsContext 13.80

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

29% On target shareContext 33%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

75% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

9.90 Shots allowedContext 8.30

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

2.56 BlocksContext 2.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.44

88% Save rateContext 68%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

363 PassesContext 452

291 Accurate passesContext 380

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.87

18.10 FoulsContext 11.80

16.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,444 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel30 km3,272 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 33
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	30 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,444 km	3,272 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	19.9	18

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 3L. Realpe 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

21M. Zabiri

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

86Rodrigo Mora 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 9Samu Omorodion 7William Gomes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.40

FC Porto · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-0
Scored: 2.60
Conceded: 0.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	FC Porto
Nacional	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Guimaraes	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 H
Arouca	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 A
Rio Ave	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 A
Casa Pia	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Points	10 of 21 · 1.43 per game	21 of 21 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Famalicao wins2 draws4 FC Porto wins

Goals per game1.17 – 2.67 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

18 Apr 2025FC Porto2–1Famalicao
7 Dec 2024Famalicao1–1FC Porto
13 Apr 2024FC Porto2–2Famalicao
2 Dec 2023Famalicao0–3FC Porto
20 May 2023Famalicao2–4FC Porto
15 Jan 2023FC Porto4–1Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.30
Conceded per game	0.40	0.30
Match goals	1.50	2.60	2.65
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	70%	70%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

	Famalicao	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.60
Conceded per game	0.40	0.60
Match goals	1.50	2.20	2.65
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	70%	50%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.70
Corners conceded	4.40	3.10
Match total	10.60	8.80	9.16
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.70
Match total	5.20	5.50	5.46
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

	Famalicao	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	6.30
Corners conceded	4.40	2.90
Match total	10.60	9.20	9.16
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.60
Opponent cards	2.30	3.00
Match total	5.20	5.60	5.46
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Bessa 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.65league 5.19

Red cards0.30league 0.28

Cards 5+52%league 65%

Fouls24.3league 27.7

Penalties0.17league 0.48

Home wins52%league 35%

Famalicao3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L10 May 25A · Santa Clara1–23
W30 Mar 25H · AVS4–12
W4 Nov 23H · GIL Vicente3–13

FC Porto2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 5.0 Pens for · against2 · 1

W17 May 25H · Nacional3–01
W4 May 24A · Chaves3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.