Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Famalicao53.0%fair odds 1.89
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89
GIL Vicente21.4%fair odds 4.68
Expected goals1.66 – 0.97total 2.62
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Famalicao ↓ · GIL Vicente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Famalicao goals, columns GIL Vicente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.17
- 1–011.4%8.76
- 2–010.0%10.03
- 2–19.6%10.39
- 0–07.9%12.69
- 0–16.4%15.63
- 1–25.6%17.82
- 3–05.5%18.17
- 3–15.3%18.81
- 2–24.6%21.52
Winning margin
12.5%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 7.99
16.5%
Famalicao by 2
fair 6.07
24.0%
Famalicao by 1
fair 4.17
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.89
13.7%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 7.29
5.6%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 17.87
2.0%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 49.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Famalicao goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
GIL Vicente goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 53.0% | 53.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.7% | +1.0 pp |
| GIL Vicente win | 21.4% | 21.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 52.6% | -3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.7% | 53.6% | -2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 1.66 | 1.75 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 0.97 | 1.03 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Famalicao win53.0%1.89
- Draw25.7%3.89
- GIL Vicente win21.4%4.68
- Double chance Famalicao or draw78.6%1.27
- Double chance Famalicao or GIL Vicente74.3%1.35
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw47.0%2.13
- Draw no bet Famalicao71.3%1.40
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente28.7%3.48
Goals
- Over 0.592.1%1.09
- Over 1.574.3%1.35
- Over 2.548.7%2.05
- Over 3.526.9%3.72
- Over 4.512.6%7.95
- Under 1.525.7%3.89
- Under 2.551.3%1.95
- Under 3.573.1%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes50.7%1.97
- No49.3%2.03
- Yes and over 2.538.5%2.60
- Famalicao win and yes22.8%4.39
- Draw and yes17.8%5.62
- GIL Vicente win and yes10.2%9.84
Team goals
- Famalicao over 0.580.9%1.24
- Famalicao over 1.549.3%2.03
- Famalicao over 2.523.1%4.32
- GIL Vicente over 0.561.9%1.61
- GIL Vicente over 1.525.2%3.97
- GIL Vicente over 2.57.4%13.49
- Famalicao clean sheet38.1%2.63
- GIL Vicente clean sheet19.1%5.24
- Famalicao win to nil30.2%3.31
- GIL Vicente win to nil11.2%8.93
Handicap
- Famalicao −1.529.0%3.45
- Famalicao −2.512.5%7.99
- GIL Vicente +1.571.0%1.41
- GIL Vicente +2.587.5%1.14
- GIL Vicente −1.57.6%13.10
- Famalicao +1.592.4%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored21
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result49.6%
1X2 Brier0.433
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right52.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 43.9% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 53.9% | 83.3% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 67.0% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 73.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 21 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4426 | 0.4290 |
| Avg chance given to result | 48.2% | 49.3% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 75.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 21 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.