Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 23). Famalicao had 8 days of rest, GIL Vicente 5.8 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Famalicao53%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente21%
Famalicao54%
Draw25%
GIL Vicente21%
Famalicao53%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente21%
Famalicao46%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente27%
Famalicao54%
Draw25%
GIL Vicente21%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.9
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 9
Team strength
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
32
36
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoGIL Vicente
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
0.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+1.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
50%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
40%
On target shareContext
17%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
62%
Box shareContext
67%
20%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
—
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
100%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
366
PassesContext
261
298
Accurate passesContext
195
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.32
Team ratingContext
6.70
19.00
FoulsContext
12.00
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
20.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
37%
On target shareContext
32%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
59%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.71
10.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
77%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
355
PassesContext
366
284
Accurate passesContext
290
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.91
16.30
FoulsContext
12.50
17.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km466 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel16 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 466 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
23Gil Dias
12S. Elisor
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
5F. Cáseres
32Martin Fernández
10Luís Esteves
95Santi García
17Sergio Bermejo
9Pablo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
GIL Vicente · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Famalicao wins2 draws1 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 17 Feb 2025GIL Vicente0–2Famalicao
- 14 Sep 2024Famalicao1–1GIL Vicente
- 29 Mar 2024GIL Vicente1–2Famalicao
- 4 Nov 2023Famalicao3–1GIL Vicente
- 12 Feb 2023Famalicao0–1GIL Vicente
- 22 Aug 2022GIL Vicente0–0Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 9.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 12.50 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 7.50 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.76 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 6.60 | 5.10 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.67league 4.95
Red cards0.22league 0.14
Cards 5+78%league 62%
Fouls29.6league 28.1
Penalties0.56league 0.33
Home wins33%league 43%
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Dec 24H · Nacional2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
GIL Vicente2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
