Bundesliga Gameweek 30 Sat, Apr 17 · 14:30 WWK Arena, Augsburg
FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel427 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FC Augsburg—%
Draw—%
Borussia Dortmund—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Augsburg)

Forecast from 2 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FC AugsburgBorussia Dortmund
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 80
72 AttackIn forecast 69
23 DefenceIn forecast 80
46 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC AugsburgBorussia Dortmund
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
2.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.76
2.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
100% Scored inContext 83%
17% Clean sheetsContext 67%
15.67 ShotsContext 15.17
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17
45% On target shareContext 34%
11.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
72% Box shareContext 73%
17% ConversionContext 12%
1.75 OffsidesContext 1.50
21.83 Shots allowedContext 11.67
7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
6.17 BlocksContext 2.80
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
70% Save rateContext 78%
42% PossessionIn forecast 55%
372 PassesContext 530
288 Accurate passesContext 450
77% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.01 Team ratingContext 7.04
9.83 FoulsContext 11.17
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83
1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.85
2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
90% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.10 ShotsContext 14.70
6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
42% On target shareContext 39%
11.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
72% Box shareContext 72%
15% ConversionContext 13%
1.88 OffsidesContext 1.63
19.20 Shots allowedContext 11.20
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
5.50 BlocksContext 2.78
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
71% Save rateContext 77%
41% PossessionIn forecast 54%
356 PassesContext 530
274 Accurate passesContext 454
77% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.99
9.20 FoulsContext 10.90
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km805 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel427 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Augsburg Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Apr7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km427 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways805 km127 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro
Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FC Augsburg · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
1.33
Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentFC AugsburgBorussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen L 2–3 A D 2–2 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 FC Augsburg wins2 draws6 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%
  • 14 Mar 2026Borussia Dortmund2–0FC Augsburg
  • 31 Oct 2025FC Augsburg0–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 8 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund0–1FC Augsburg
  • 26 Oct 2024FC Augsburg2–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 4 May 2024Borussia Dortmund5–1FC Augsburg
  • 16 Dec 2023FC Augsburg1–1Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FC AugsburgBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 2.671.83
Conceded per game 2.000.67
Match goals 4.672.50
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 83%33%
Both teams scored 83%33%
Clean sheets 17%67%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
FC AugsburgBorussia DortmundForecast
Scored per game 2.301.90
Conceded per game 1.900.90
Match goals 4.202.80
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 90%50%
Over 3.5 80%40%
Both teams scored 80%40%
Clean sheets 10%50%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC AugsburgBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.83
Corners conceded6.834.67
Match total12.839.5010.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 10.583% 5/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.832.67
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.334.673.51
Over 3.533% 2/667% 4/6
Over 4.517% 1/650% 3/6
FC AugsburgBorussia DortmundLeague
Corners
Corners won5.805.80
Corners conceded6.104.50
Match total11.9010.3010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 10.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.602.20
Opponent cards1.701.50
Match total3.303.703.51
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

FC Augsburg6 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 5 76-90
Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München 1899 Hoffenheim Apr 1714:30 SC Freiburg FSV Mainz 05 Apr 1714:30 Bayer Leverkusen Werder Bremen Apr 1714:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Borussia Mönchengladbach Apr 1714:30 FC Augsburg Borussia Dortmund Apr 1714:30 RB Leipzig 1.FC Köln Apr 1714:30 FC Schalke 04 Hamburger SV Apr 1714:30 Union Berlin VfB Stuttgart Apr 1714:30 SV Elversberg SC Paderborn 07 Apr 1714:30