FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 41). FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Augsburg29%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig46%
FC Augsburg29%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig44%
FC Augsburg29%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig45%
FC Augsburg23%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig53%
FC Augsburg29%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig45%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 106
Team strength
FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
72
AttackIn forecast
76
23
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgRB Leipzig
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
100%
Scored inContext
86%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
10.86
ShotsContext
15.29
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
36%
On target shareContext
28%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.14
59%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.71
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.50
BlocksContext
4.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
64%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
376
PassesContext
437
298
Accurate passesContext
363
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.29
FoulsContext
11.00
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.14
3.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
13.70
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
59%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.90
Shots allowedContext
15.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.50
BlocksContext
5.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
57%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
409
PassesContext
432
332
Accurate passesContext
359
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.00
FoulsContext
10.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km805 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel346 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 805 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
40N. Banks
5C. Matsima
17K. Jakić
13D. Giannoulis
19Robin Fellhauer
4H. Massengo
30A. Kade
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
26E. Saad
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
RB Leipzig · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 12 of 15 · 2.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 FC Augsburg wins4 draws4 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 14 Feb 2025FC Augsburg0–0RB Leipzig
- 28 Sep 2024RB Leipzig4–0FC Augsburg
- 10 Feb 2024FC Augsburg2–2RB Leipzig
- 16 Sep 2023RB Leipzig3–0FC Augsburg
- 15 Apr 2023RB Leipzig3–2FC Augsburg
- 22 Oct 2022FC Augsburg3–3RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 2.71 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 2.71 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 10.86 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.43 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 5.57 | 3.85 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 11.20 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.60 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 4.31
Red cards0.23league 0.22
Cards 5+51%league 44%
Fouls23.5league 22.8
Penalties0.25league 0.41
Home wins42%league 41%
FC Augsburg6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L28 Sep 24A · RB Leipzig0–42
- L20 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart0–34
- L27 Aug 23A · Bayern München1–32
- D8 Oct 22H · VfL Wolfsburg1–15
- L19 Feb 22H · SC Freiburg1–21
RB Leipzig11 with this referee
Record4-3-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L17 May 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–31
- L1 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 051–21
- L20 Dec 24A · Bayern München1–52
- W28 Sep 24H · FC Augsburg4–01
- W6 Apr 24A · SC Freiburg4–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg7 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
RB Leipzig7 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
5
0-15
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
