FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 39). FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 7 and had to travel 451 km.
Away travel451 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg39%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
FC Augsburg32%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg42%
FC Augsburg39%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 47
Team strength
FC Augsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
72
AttackIn forecast
50
23
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgVfL Wolfsburg
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.90
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
28%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
64%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.60
OffsidesContext
—
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.25
BlocksContext
4.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
65%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
378
PassesContext
401
306
Accurate passesContext
327
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.89
15.00
FoulsContext
10.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
3.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
13.10
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
28%
On target shareContext
28%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
62%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.75
BlocksContext
3.80
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
59%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
419
PassesContext
390
347
Accurate passesContext
315
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.80
FoulsContext
8.70
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km129 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel451 km497 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 451 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 129 km | 497 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
40N. Banks
5C. Matsima
17K. Jakić
13D. Giannoulis
8E. Rexhbeçaj
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
26E. Saad
32F. Rieder
36M. Kömür
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
21J. Mæhle
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
2K. Fischer
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
9M. Amoura
32M. Svanberg
11A. Daghim
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 FC Augsburg wins3 draws1 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 15 Mar 2025FC Augsburg1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 2 Nov 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–1FC Augsburg
- 16 Mar 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3FC Augsburg
- 28 Oct 2023FC Augsburg3–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 1 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–2FC Augsburg
- 8 Oct 2022FC Augsburg1–1VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FC Augsburg | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 11.60 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| FC Augsburg | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 10.90 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.28
Red cards0.21league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 46%
Fouls23.7league 22.9
Penalties0.38league 0.50
Home wins30%league 37%
FC Augsburg3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Jan 25A · Werder Bremen2–02
- D10 Feb 24H · RB Leipzig2–25
- L28 Aug 21H · Bayer Leverkusen1–40
VfL Wolfsburg5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Aug 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–13
- D2 Feb 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- L2 Mar 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–33
- D10 Feb 23A · FC Schalke 040–04
- W9 Apr 22H · Arminia Bielefeld4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg5 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg5 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
