UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00 St. Jakob-Park, Basel
FC Basel 1893 27th · 6 pts · 7 played
0–1Full time
Plzen 17th · 11 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

Plzen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 43). FC Basel 1893 had 7 days of rest, Plzen 7.1 and had to travel 480 km.

Away travel480 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Basel 189339%
Draw27%
Plzen34%
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.32
FC Basel 189338%
Draw27%
Plzen35%
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31
FC Basel 189338%
Draw27%
Plzen35%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.33
FC Basel 189332%
Draw27%
Plzen41%
Expected goals 1.27 – 1.48
FC Basel 189339%
Draw27%
Plzen35%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.35
Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Basel)

No weather data yet

RefereeGiorgi Kruashvili
  • Cards per match 4.2
  • Penalties per match 0.15
  • Matches 20

Team strength

FC Basel 1893Plzen
43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52
41 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
36 AttackIn forecast 54
42 DefenceIn forecast 43
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Basel 1893

Attack—
Defense risk—

Plzen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Basel 1893Plzen
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.43
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.83
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.17
86% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 57%
12.86 ShotsContext 11.57
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
31% On target shareContext 36%
7.43 Shots in the boxContext 6.71
56% Box shareContext 55%
10% ConversionContext 9%
3.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
16.29 Shots allowedContext 13.71
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57
4.86 BlocksContext 4.14
4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
74% Save rateContext 91%
47% PossessionIn forecast 41%
408 PassesContext 296
336 Accurate passesContext 225
82% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.91
12.86 FoulsContext 13.29
11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.14
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.29
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.83
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
80% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.30 ShotsContext 13.56
4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22
32% On target shareContext 39%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.67
55% Box shareContext 59%
9% ConversionContext 10%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.90 Shots allowedContext 13.56
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
4.20 BlocksContext 3.89
4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
74% Save rateContext 85%
49% PossessionIn forecast 41%
429 PassesContext 303
355 Accurate passesContext 231
83% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.97
12.90 FoulsContext 13.22
14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.67
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Basel 1893
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km809 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Plzen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel480 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Basel 1893 Plzen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km480 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways809 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one—21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Basel 1893 Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Hitz(G)
31D. Schmid 24F. Daniliuc 32J. Adjetey 27K. Rüegg
28D. Kacuri 8K. Koindredi
7P. Otele 10X. Shaqiri 11B. Traoré
23A. Ajeti
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Plzen Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
44F. Wiegele(G)
5K. Spáčil 21V. Jemelka 40S. Dweh
14Merchas Doski 6L. Červ 32M. Valenta 99Amar Memić
18T. Ladra
20J. Panoš 19C. Souaré
+13 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Basel 1893 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Plzen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FC Basel 1893+0.6 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Plzen-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Basel 1893 · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Plzen · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentFC Basel 1893Plzen
SC Freiburg L 1–2 A D 0–0 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FC Basel 1893PlzenForecast
Scored per game 1.291.00
Conceded per game 1.710.43
Match goals 3.001.43 2.75
Over 1.5 100%57%
Over 2.5 71%29% 52%
Over 3.5 29%0%
Both teams scored 71%43% 56%
Clean sheets 14%57%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
FC Basel 1893PlzenForecast
Scored per game 1.291.00
Conceded per game 1.710.43
Match goals 3.001.43 2.75
Over 1.5 100%57%
Over 2.5 71%29% 52%
Over 3.5 29%0%
Both teams scored 71%43% 56%
Clean sheets 14%57%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC Basel 1893PlzenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.434.43
Corners conceded5.145.57
Match total8.5710.009.07
Over 8.543% 3/786% 6/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.514% 1/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.003.14
Opponent cards2.293.29
Match total4.296.434.35
Over 3.571% 5/7100% 7/7
Over 4.543% 3/786% 6/7
FC Basel 1893PlzenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.604.56
Corners conceded4.805.56
Match total8.4010.129.07
Over 8.550% 5/1089% 8/9
Over 9.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Over 10.510% 1/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.202.70
Opponent cards2.303.10
Match total4.505.804.35
Over 3.570% 7/1090% 9/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giorgi Kruashvili 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 4.13
Red cards0.15league 0.21
Cards 5+40%league 42%
Fouls23.2league 24.2
Penalties0.15league 0.36
Home wins55%league 51%
FC Basel 1893

No previous matches with this referee.

Plzen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • L13 Feb 25A · Ferencvarosi TC0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Basel 18937 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1 5 0-15
1 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Plzen7 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
FC Basel 189310 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2 5 0-15
2 16-30
2 5 31-45
2 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1 2 0-15
4 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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