FC Basel 1893 vs VfB Stuttgart – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 St. Jakob-Park, Basel

FC Basel 1893 29th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–0Full time

VfB Stuttgart 9th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 44). FC Basel 1893 had 8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 4.1 and had to travel 181 km.

Away travel181 kmRest days8 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3

FC Basel 189334%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.48

FC Basel 189333%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

FC Basel 189333%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart41%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.49

FC Basel 189327%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart48%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.66

FC Basel 189334%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart39%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.40

Over 2.5 53% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Basel)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 90

Team strength

FC Basel 1893

VfB Stuttgart

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

41 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

36 AttackIn forecast 70

42 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Basel 1893

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Basel 1893

VfB Stuttgart

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def 1.77

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

— Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.40 ShotsContext 16.50

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

34% On target shareContext 33%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

57% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.78

13.20 Shots allowedContext 9.10

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

3.60 BlocksContext 2.50

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

64% Save rateContext 78%

53% PossessionIn forecast 61%

439 PassesContext 555

366 Accurate passesContext 490

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.00

14.00 FoulsContext 11.10

17.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 5 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Basel 1893

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km106 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel181 km575 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Basel 1893	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	181 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	106 km	575 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	20.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Basel 1893 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Hitz(G)

31D. Schmid 24F. Daniliuc 32J. Adjetey 3N. Vouilloz

22L. Leroy 8K. Koindredi

7P. Otele 10X. Shaqiri 9J. Agbonifo

23A. Ajeti

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

7M. Mittelstädt 3R. Hendriks 14L. Jaquez 22L. Assignon

6A. Stiller 30Chema Andrés

18J. Leweling 8Tiago Tomás 27B. Bouanani

9E. Demirović

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Basel 1893 Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Basel 1893+0.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
VfB Stuttgart-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Basel 1893 · Home No home games yet this season.

VfB Stuttgart · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Basel 1893	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	FC Basel 1893	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.17
Match goals	3.00	2.67	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	100%	67%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	17%
Both teams scored	100%	67%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Basel 1893	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	9.00
Corners conceded	4.00	2.00
Match total	8.00	11.00	9.52
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	FC Basel 1893	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	4.20	5.00
Match total	8.20	12.00	9.52
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/5	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.50
Match total	5.00	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59league 4.19

Red cards0.24league 0.19

Cards 5+51%league 41%

Fouls25.0league 26.3

Penalties0.13league 0.30

Home wins33%league 37%

FC Basel 1893

No previous matches with this referee.

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.