FC Midtjylland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Midtjylland43.0%fair odds 2.32
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
Celtic31.5%fair odds 3.17
Expected goals1.61 – 1.35total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celtic
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Midtjylland ↓ · Celtic → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Midtjylland goals, columns Celtic goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.43
- 2–19.1%11.03
- 1–07.8%12.90
- 1–27.6%13.16
- 2–06.7%14.88
- 0–16.4%15.62
- 2–26.1%16.35
- 0–05.8%17.29
- 3–14.9%20.56
- 0–24.7%21.18
Winning margin
9.1%
FC Midtjylland by 3+
fair 10.95
13.1%
FC Midtjylland by 2
fair 7.63
20.8%
FC Midtjylland by 1
fair 4.82
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
17.3%
Celtic by 1
fair 5.78
9.2%
Celtic by 2
fair 10.85
5.0%
Celtic by 3+
fair 20.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
FC Midtjylland goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Celtic goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland win | 43.0% | 43.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.7% | -1.2 pp |
| Celtic win | 31.5% | 30.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 51.0% | +5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.8% | 55.3% | +4.5 pp |
| Expected goals FC Midtjylland | 1.61 | 1.50 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Celtic | 1.35 | 1.22 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Midtjylland win43.0%2.32
- Draw25.5%3.93
- Celtic win31.5%3.17
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or draw68.5%1.46
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or Celtic74.5%1.34
- Double chance Celtic or draw57.0%1.75
- Draw no bet FC Midtjylland57.7%1.73
- Draw no bet Celtic42.3%2.36
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.8%1.76
- Over 3.534.4%2.91
- Over 4.517.8%5.62
- Under 1.519.9%5.02
- Under 2.543.2%2.31
- Under 3.565.6%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes59.8%1.67
- No40.2%2.49
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.08
- FC Midtjylland win and yes22.9%4.38
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- Celtic win and yes17.3%5.78
Team goals
- FC Midtjylland over 0.580.0%1.25
- FC Midtjylland over 1.547.8%2.09
- FC Midtjylland over 2.521.9%4.56
- Celtic over 0.574.1%1.35
- Celtic over 1.539.1%2.56
- Celtic over 2.515.4%6.48
- FC Midtjylland clean sheet25.9%3.86
- Celtic clean sheet20.0%5.00
- FC Midtjylland win to nil20.2%4.96
- Celtic win to nil14.2%7.04
Handicap
- FC Midtjylland −1.522.2%4.50
- FC Midtjylland −2.59.1%10.95
- Celtic +1.577.8%1.29
- Celtic +2.590.9%1.10
- Celtic −1.514.2%7.03
- FC Midtjylland +1.585.8%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored54
Favourite won53.7%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right51.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 24 | 44.3% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.0% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 54 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5890 | 0.6070 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 39.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.8% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–3 FC Midtjylland26·26·49
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- ✗AS Roma 1–2 Plzen60·22·18
- ✗Malmo FF 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb27·26·46
- ✓Celtic 2–1 Sturm Graz57·23·20
- ✓SC Freiburg 2–0 Utrecht57·24·20
- ✗Lille 3–4 PAOK53·24·22
- ✗Nottingham Forest 2–0 FC Porto34·26·40
- ✓Feyenoord 3–1 Panathinaikos58·23·19
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 54 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.