UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 6 · 17:45 MCH Arena, Herning
FC Midtjylland 1st · 9 pts · 3 played
3–1Full time
Celtic 21st · 4 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FC Midtjylland were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Celtic usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Midtjylland had 13.9 days of rest, Celtic 13.9 and had to travel 822 km.

Away travel822 kmRest days13.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Midtjylland43%
Draw25%
Celtic32%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.35
FC Midtjylland44%
Draw27%
Celtic30%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19
FC Midtjylland44%
Draw26%
Celtic31%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.32
FC Midtjylland35%
Draw26%
Celtic39%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.51
FC Midtjylland43%
Draw27%
Celtic30%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.22
Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Herning)

No weather data yet

Referee · SerbiaNenad Minaković
  • Cards per match 4.2
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 18

Team strength

FC MidtjyllandCeltic
52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52
47 Current StrengthIn forecast 52
37 AttackIn forecast 74
42 DefenceIn forecast 50
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Midtjylland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celtic

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC MidtjyllandCeltic
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
+1.12 Goals minus xGContext -1.14
100% Scored inContext 67%
67% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.00 ShotsContext 12.33
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
52% On target shareContext 43%
6.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.67
69% Box shareContext 85%
30% ConversionContext 8%
2.67 OffsidesContext 1.33
15.00 Shots allowedContext 12.33
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67
3.33 BlocksContext 4.00
4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
88% Save rateContext 70%
50% PossessionIn forecast 58%
378 PassesContext 553
304 Accurate passesContext 478
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.88
14.67 FoulsContext 13.00
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
+0.75 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
90% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.00 ShotsContext 16.20
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
45% On target shareContext 34%
8.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
66% Box shareContext 69%
19% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.71
11.60 Shots allowedContext 9.20
4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33
3.50 BlocksContext 2.67
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
82% Save rateContext 69%
53% PossessionIn forecast 66%
415 PassesContext 598
341 Accurate passesContext 520
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.94
12.70 FoulsContext 14.60
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Midtjylland
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,731 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Celtic
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel822 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Midtjylland Celtic
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km822 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,731 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16E. Ólafsson(G)
22M. Bech 6M. Erlić 3H. Lee 43M. Mbabu
8P. Billing 19P. Bravo
41M. Krüger-Johnsen 10G. Cho 11D. Osorio
7F. Gluda Djú
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
Celtic Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1K. Schmeichel(G)
63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 6A. Trusty 56A. Ralston
42C. McGregor 27A. Engels
23S. Tounekti 8E. Nygren 49J. Forrest
24J. Kenny
+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Midtjylland Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celtic Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FC Midtjylland-0.6 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Celtic+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Midtjylland · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Celtic · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentFC MidtjyllandCeltic
Sturm Graz W 2–0 H W 2–1 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 FC Midtjylland wins1 draws0 Celtic wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 28 Jul 2021FC Midtjylland2–1Celtic
  • 20 Jul 2021Celtic1–1FC Midtjylland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FC MidtjyllandCelticForecast
Scored per game 2.671.00
Conceded per game 0.671.33
Match goals 3.332.33 2.96
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 67%33% 57%
Over 3.5 33%0%
Both teams scored 33%67% 60%
Clean sheets 67%0%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games33
FC MidtjyllandCelticForecast
Scored per game 2.671.00
Conceded per game 0.671.33
Match goals 3.332.33 2.96
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 67%33% 57%
Over 3.5 33%0%
Both teams scored 33%67% 60%
Clean sheets 67%0%
Failed to score 0%33%
Games33

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC MidtjyllandCelticLeague
Corners
Corners won6.006.67
Corners conceded5.675.00
Match total11.6711.679.13
Over 8.567% 2/3100% 3/3
Over 9.567% 2/3100% 3/3
Over 10.533% 1/3100% 3/3
Cards
Cards3.001.67
Opponent cards1.671.67
Match total4.673.344.20
Over 3.5100% 3/333% 1/3
Over 4.567% 2/30% 0/3
FC MidtjyllandCelticLeague
Corners
Corners won5.606.89
Corners conceded4.904.56
Match total10.5011.459.13
Over 8.560% 6/10100% 9/9
Over 9.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 10.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.401.60
Opponent cards2.101.90
Match total4.503.504.20
Over 3.580% 8/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nenad Minaković Serbia · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.06league 4.06
Red cards0.17league 0.15
Cards 5+39%league 39%
Fouls25.5league 24.9
Penalties0.33league 0.39
Home wins61%league 48%
FC Midtjylland1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D25 Sep 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Midtjylland3 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Celtic3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 23 · conceded 7
2 1 0-15
6 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 2 76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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