FC Midtjylland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Midtjylland
4th · 16 pts · 7 played
WWLWD
2–0Full time
Dinamo Zagreb
20th · 10 pts · 7 played
DLLLW
FC Midtjylland47.4%fair odds 2.11
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Dinamo Zagreb27.4%fair odds 3.65
Expected goals1.68 – 1.23total 2.91
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dinamo Zagreb
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Midtjylland ↓ · Dinamo Zagreb → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Midtjylland goals, columns Dinamo Zagreb goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.45
- 2–19.5%10.57
- 1–08.5%11.72
- 2–07.7%13.01
- 1–26.9%14.46
- 0–16.1%16.45
- 0–06.0%16.61
- 2–25.8%17.18
- 3–15.3%18.83
- 3–04.3%23.18
Winning margin
10.9%
FC Midtjylland by 3+
fair 9.15
14.6%
FC Midtjylland by 2
fair 6.86
21.9%
FC Midtjylland by 1
fair 4.57
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
15.8%
Dinamo Zagreb by 1
fair 6.31
7.8%
Dinamo Zagreb by 2
fair 12.84
3.8%
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+
fair 26.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
FC Midtjylland goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Dinamo Zagreb goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland win | 47.4% | 46.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 27.4% | 27.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 53.6% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.2% | 56.7% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals FC Midtjylland | 1.68 | 1.62 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Dinamo Zagreb | 1.23 | 1.20 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Midtjylland win47.4%2.11
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Dinamo Zagreb win27.4%3.65
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or draw72.6%1.38
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or Dinamo Zagreb74.8%1.34
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw52.6%1.90
- Draw no bet FC Midtjylland63.4%1.58
- Draw no bet Dinamo Zagreb36.6%2.73
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.4%1.26
- Over 2.555.7%1.79
- Over 3.533.4%3.00
- Over 4.517.1%5.86
- Under 1.520.6%4.85
- Under 2.544.3%2.26
- Under 3.566.6%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes58.2%1.72
- No41.8%2.39
- Yes and over 2.546.4%2.15
- FC Midtjylland win and yes24.2%4.13
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Dinamo Zagreb win and yes14.8%6.74
Team goals
- FC Midtjylland over 0.581.4%1.23
- FC Midtjylland over 1.550.2%1.99
- FC Midtjylland over 2.523.8%4.19
- Dinamo Zagreb over 0.570.8%1.41
- Dinamo Zagreb over 1.534.8%2.87
- Dinamo Zagreb over 2.512.7%7.86
- FC Midtjylland clean sheet29.2%3.42
- Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet18.6%5.39
- FC Midtjylland win to nil23.2%4.31
- Dinamo Zagreb win to nil12.5%7.97
Handicap
- FC Midtjylland −1.525.5%3.92
- FC Midtjylland −2.510.9%9.15
- Dinamo Zagreb +1.574.5%1.34
- Dinamo Zagreb +2.589.1%1.12
- Dinamo Zagreb −1.511.5%8.66
- FC Midtjylland +1.588.5%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored126
Favourite won59.5%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.550
Over 2.5 called right54.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.5% | 43.8% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 45.1% | 47.2% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.7% | 78.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 126 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5433 | 0.5328 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.2% | 64.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 126 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.