UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00 MCH Arena, Herning
FC Midtjylland 4th · 16 pts · 7 played
2–0Full time
Dinamo Zagreb 20th · 10 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FC Midtjylland were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. FC Midtjylland had 7.1 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 7 and had to travel 1,246 km.

Away travel1,246 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Midtjylland47%
Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.23
FC Midtjylland46%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15
FC Midtjylland47%
Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.23
FC Midtjylland40%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb34%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.38
FC Midtjylland47%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb28%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.20
Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Herning)

No weather data yet

Referee · AzerbaijanElcin Masiyev
  • Cards per match 3.0
  • Penalties per match 0.00
  • Matches 4

Team strength

FC MidtjyllandDinamo Zagreb
54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49
47 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
37 AttackIn forecast 33
42 DefenceIn forecast 44
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Midtjylland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC MidtjyllandDinamo Zagreb
2.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71
1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.00
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.71
100% Scored inContext 71%
43% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.29 ShotsContext 10.00
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17
49% On target shareContext 36%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
70% Box shareContext 64%
19% ConversionContext 17%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71
13.57 Shots allowedContext 9.71
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
4.00 BlocksContext 2.33
4.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
83% Save rateContext 59%
51% PossessionIn forecast 50%
366 PassesContext 480
287 Accurate passesContext 408
78% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.01 Team ratingContext 6.75
15.43 FoulsContext 10.00
12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 9.14
2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.43
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.88
1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
+0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
100% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.80 ShotsContext 9.80
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
42% On target shareContext 33%
10.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.33
69% Box shareContext 58%
17% ConversionContext 14%
2.30 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.00 Shots allowedContext 10.60
5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90
3.44 BlocksContext 3.22
4.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30
80% Save rateContext 59%
57% PossessionIn forecast 46%
414 PassesContext 432
332 Accurate passesContext 361
80% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.77
13.90 FoulsContext 9.70
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Midtjylland
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,038 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,246 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Midtjylland Dinamo Zagreb
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,246 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,038 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 11 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one4220.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
16E. Ólafsson(G)
22M. Bech 6M. Erlić 4O. Diao
55V. Bak Jensen 20V. Byskov 21D. Castillo 11D. Osorio
58D. Şimşir 10G. Cho
74Júnior Brumado
+7 more reported missing outside this XI
Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
33I. Nevistić(G)
3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 36Sergi Domínguez 15N. Galešić
27J. Mišić
10G. Vidović 7L. Stojković 14M. Soldo 23C. Varela
17S. Kulenović
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Midtjylland Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FC Midtjylland-0.1 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Dinamo Zagreb+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Midtjylland · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.33
Dinamo Zagreb · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentFC MidtjyllandDinamo Zagreb
Maccabi Tel Aviv W 3–0 A W 3–1 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FC MidtjyllandDinamo ZagrebForecast
Scored per game 2.291.71
Conceded per game 1.142.00
Match goals 3.433.71 2.91
Over 1.5 86%100%
Over 2.5 71%86% 56%
Over 3.5 43%71%
Both teams scored 57%71% 58%
Clean sheets 43%0%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games77
FC MidtjyllandDinamo ZagrebForecast
Scored per game 2.291.71
Conceded per game 1.142.00
Match goals 3.433.71 2.91
Over 1.5 86%100%
Over 2.5 71%86% 56%
Over 3.5 43%71%
Both teams scored 57%71% 58%
Clean sheets 43%0%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games77

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC MidtjyllandDinamo ZagrebLeague
Corners
Corners won5.294.43
Corners conceded6.004.29
Match total11.298.729.07
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.291.43
Opponent cards1.571.71
Match total3.863.144.35
Over 3.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 4.543% 3/729% 2/7
FC MidtjyllandDinamo ZagrebLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.30
Corners conceded5.105.50
Match total11.109.809.07
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.70
Opponent cards1.802.10
Match total4.003.804.35
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Elcin Masiyev Azerbaijan · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.75league 4.13
Red cards0.25league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 24.2
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins25%league 51%
FC Midtjylland

No previous matches with this referee.

Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Midtjylland7 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
3 2 16-30
5 31-45
46-60
2 1 61-75
4 4 76-90
Dinamo Zagreb7 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
7 31-45
1 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
5 1 0-15
2 3 16-30
6 2 31-45
6 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2 3 0-15
4 3 16-30
7 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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