FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. FC Porto had 6.1 days of rest, Alverca 8 and had to travel 253 km.
Away travel253 kmRest days6.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
Alverca9%
FC Porto77%
Draw15%
Alverca8%
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
Alverca9%
FC Porto66%
Draw21%
Alverca13%
FC Porto73%
Draw17%
Alverca9%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 17
Team strength
FC Porto
Alverca
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
74
AttackIn forecast
38
80
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoAlverca
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
0.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
97%
Scored inContext
74%
61%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
14.16
ShotsContext
9.39
5.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
37%
On target shareContext
38%
9.35
Shots in the boxContext
6.07
65%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.28
OffsidesContext
2.06
8.97
Shots allowedContext
13.55
2.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.21
BlocksContext
4.07
2.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
86%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
440
PassesContext
356
373
Accurate passesContext
287
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.61
FoulsContext
11.84
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
2.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.60
ShotsContext
10.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
60%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.20
10.10
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.71
BlocksContext
3.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
84%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
395
PassesContext
367
325
Accurate passesContext
296
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.80
FoulsContext
9.40
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km543 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel253 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 253 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 543 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
91Sandro Lima
20Figueiredo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-3-0
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 0.40
Alverca · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Tondela | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Estoril | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 HW 4–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Points | 79 of 90 · 2.63 per game | 38 of 90 · 1.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 FC Porto wins0 draws0 Alverca wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 22 Dec 2025Alverca0–3FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.48 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.68 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 55% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 58% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 61% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 26% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| FC Porto | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.19 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.31 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.17 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 13/26 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 5.45 | 4.51 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 25/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 19/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| FC Porto | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 10.76 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.24league 4.83
Red cards0.24league 0.24
Cards 5+88%league 58%
Fouls28.9league 26.8
Penalties0.29league 0.45
Home wins53%league 41%
FC Porto2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Feb 26H · Rio Ave1–02
- L26 Apr 25A · Estrela0–23
Alverca2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L14 Dec 25A · Arouca0–15
- W4 Oct 25A · AVS3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto31 games · scored 63 · conceded 15
9
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
11
1
31-45
12
4
46-60
11
3
61-75
12
5
76-90
Alverca31 games · scored 34 · conceded 49
4
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
9
31-45
4
9
46-60
5
9
61-75
12
8
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
