FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. FC Porto had 4.9 days of rest, Arouca 6.1 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days4.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Porto68%
Draw20%
Arouca12%
FC Porto76%
Draw16%
Arouca8%
FC Porto68%
Draw20%
Arouca12%
FC Porto61%
Draw23%
Arouca16%
FC Porto68%
Draw20%
Arouca12%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 7
Team strength
FC Porto
Arouca
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
74
AttackIn forecast
28
80
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoArouca
1.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
0.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
96%
Scored inContext
70%
74%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
13.78
ShotsContext
9.91
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
38%
On target shareContext
35%
9.48
Shots in the boxContext
6.05
67%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.14
9.17
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.91
3.43
BlocksContext
3.90
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
90%
Save rateContext
57%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
450
PassesContext
400
383
Accurate passesContext
331
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.61
13.22
FoulsContext
13.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.65
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.61
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
100%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.70
ShotsContext
12.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.20
Shots allowedContext
10.60
2.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.40
BlocksContext
3.78
1.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
80%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
429
PassesContext
445
362
Accurate passesContext
374
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.30
FoulsContext
12.10
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,390 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Arouca
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel39 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,390 km | 373 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
6Diogo Monteiro
10Pablo Gozálbez
21T. Fukui
7N. Djouahra
19A. Trezza
24Brian Mansilla
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-0
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 0.27
Arouca · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 2.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | L 3–4 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Benfica | D 0–0 H | L 0–5 A |
| Points | 59 of 66 · 2.68 per game | 26 of 66 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 FC Porto wins1 draws1 Arouca wins
Goals per game2.71 – 0.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 29 Sep 2025Arouca0–4FC Porto
- 1 Mar 2025Arouca0–2FC Porto
- 29 Sep 2024FC Porto4–0Arouca
- 12 Feb 2024Arouca3–2FC Porto
- 3 Sep 2023FC Porto1–1Arouca
- 8 May 2023Arouca0–1FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.91 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.30 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 3.48 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 26% | 52% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 74% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 30% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| FC Porto | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.90 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.35 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 8.68 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 11/20 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 7/20 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 5/20 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.96 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 5.61 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 19/23 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 14/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| FC Porto | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.20 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 4.87
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+14%league 59%
Fouls24.0league 26.9
Penalties0.29league 0.44
Home wins57%league 43%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
Arouca2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Dec 25A · Santa Clara0–02
- D4 May 25H · Casa Pia0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto23 games · scored 44 · conceded 7
5
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
11
2
46-60
8
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
Arouca22 games · scored 31 · conceded 44
6
5
0-15
1
7
16-30
6
12
31-45
8
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
