FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. FC Porto had 3.1 days of rest, Moreirense 8.2 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days3.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto75%
Draw17%
Moreirense7%
FC Porto74%
Draw17%
Moreirense9%
FC Porto75%
Draw17%
Moreirense7%
FC Porto69%
Draw20%
Moreirense10%
FC Porto76%
Draw17%
Moreirense7%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 39%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 36
Team strength
FC Porto
Moreirense
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
74
AttackIn forecast
17
80
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoMoreirense
1.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
96%
Scored inContext
76%
68%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
14.00
ShotsContext
8.76
5.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.46
38%
On target shareContext
38%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.25
66%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.72
9.44
Shots allowedContext
12.64
2.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
3.52
BlocksContext
3.46
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
89%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
446
PassesContext
417
378
Accurate passesContext
347
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.28
FoulsContext
13.84
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.28
2.16
Yellow cardsContext
2.68
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
0.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
7.50
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
40%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
61%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.71
9.30
Shots allowedContext
12.30
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.89
BlocksContext
3.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
79%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
409
PassesContext
440
341
Accurate passesContext
368
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.50
FoulsContext
12.30
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
16.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,808 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Moreirense
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar | 8.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,808 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
2Diogo Travassos
25Afonso Assis
8M. Stjepanović
78Landerson
21Rodri Alonso
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Moreirense · Away
1.15points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 HW 4–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 63 of 72 · 2.63 per game | 35 of 72 · 1.46 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 FC Porto wins0 draws0 Moreirense wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.60
Over 2.5100%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 27 Oct 2025Moreirense1–2FC Porto
- 2 May 2025FC Porto3–1Moreirense
- 21 Dec 2024Moreirense0–3FC Porto
- 20 Jan 2024FC Porto5–0Moreirense
- 14 Aug 2023Moreirense1–2FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.96 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 2.64 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 56% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 52% | 39% |
| Clean sheets | 68% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 24% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| FC Porto | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 39% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.45 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.68 | 8.43 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 5/22 | 4% 1/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.96 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.76 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 20/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 15/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| FC Porto | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.45 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 4.86
Red cards0.19league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 59%
Fouls28.6league 27.0
Penalties0.31league 0.44
Home wins53%league 40%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
Moreirense4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 25A · Arouca0–10
- L30 Nov 24A · Rio Ave2–33
- W18 May 24H · Estoril2–10
- W1 Oct 23A · Rio Ave4–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto25 games · scored 49 · conceded 10
7
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
11
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
9
2
76-90
Moreirense25 games · scored 31 · conceded 35
6
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
6
61-75
5
9
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
