FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 22). FC Porto usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Porto had 13.9 days of rest, Nacional 14.1 and had to travel 1,195 km.
Away travel1,195 kmRest days13.9 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
FC Porto73%
Draw17%
Nacional9%
FC Porto74%
Draw17%
Nacional9%
FC Porto73%
Draw17%
Nacional9%
FC Porto67%
Draw21%
Nacional13%
FC Porto74%
Draw17%
Nacional9%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 70
Team strength
FC Porto
Nacional
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
74
AttackIn forecast
15
80
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoNacional
2.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.82
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
75%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
16.25
ShotsContext
9.75
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
40%
On target shareContext
33%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
63%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.75
Shots allowedContext
16.50
2.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.50
BlocksContext
5.25
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
86%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
428
PassesContext
239
372
Accurate passesContext
173
87%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.75
FoulsContext
19.25
8.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
3.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.80
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
39%
On target shareContext
31%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
63%
Box shareContext
53%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.78
9.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
3.90
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
77%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
475
PassesContext
294
412
Accurate passesContext
225
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.83
15.30
FoulsContext
14.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km547 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,195 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,195 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 547 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
13P. Rosario
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Nacional
Confirmed XI
37Lucas França(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
15C. Labidi
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
99Pablo Ruan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Nacional · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 FC Porto wins0 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 17 May 2025FC Porto3–0Nacional
- 12 Jan 2025Nacional2–0FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| FC Porto | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 12.50 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 6.25 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| FC Porto | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.78 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 5.50 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.93league 4.95
Red cards0.26league 0.21
Cards 5+60%league 59%
Fouls29.3league 27.4
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins40%league 36%
FC Porto7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.9 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L8 Mar 25A · SC Braga0–14
- D7 Dec 24A · Famalicao1–13
- L31 Aug 24A · Sporting CP0–25
- W20 Jan 24H · Moreirense5–00
- W21 Jan 23A · Guimaraes1–04
Nacional2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W9 Feb 25A · Farense2–04
- L17 Aug 24H · Sporting CP1–61
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto4 games · scored 11 · conceded 1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
Nacional4 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
