FC Schalke 04
Attack+3%
Defense risk−1%
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FSV Mainz 05. FC Schalke 04 were without D. Ljubičić and M. Sylla. FSV Mainz 05 were without D. Kohr and P. Nebel. FC Schalke 04 had 5.9 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7 and had to travel 189 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel189 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Schalke 0439%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0536%
FC Schalke 0440%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0532%
FC Schalke 0439%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0537%
FC Schalke 0432%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0544%
FC Schalke 0439%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0536%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gelsenkirchen)
12°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 77%
Referee · GermanyRichard Hempel
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
33
AttackIn forecast
68
50
DefenceIn forecast
56
43
Form indexContext
49
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack+2%
Defense risk−19%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
40%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
19.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.20
70%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
16.00
Shots allowedContext
13.20
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.00
BlocksContext
4.20
5.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
84%
Save rateContext
50%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
341
PassesContext
442
240
Accurate passesContext
359
70%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.80
FoulsContext
12.60
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
17.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
37%
On target shareContext
36%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
74%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
3.30
BlocksContext
3.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
77%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
392
PassesContext
432
296
Accurate passesContext
354
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.93
8.50
FoulsContext
11.60
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Schalke 04
LDWDL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km788 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 5 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
FSV Mainz 05
DWLWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel189 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Schalke 04 |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 189 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 788 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Schalke 04
Confirmed XI
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
10N. Amiri
19A. Caci
9P. Tietz
23S. Becker
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Schalke 04
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −22.0% · Defence line −4.6% of weighted minutes
- MID D. Ljubičić Starter 6.81 Att −7.9% Def −4.6%
- ATT M. Sylla Starter 6.58 Att −14.2%
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −18.6% · Defence line −16.3% of weighted minutes
- MID D. Kohr Starter 6.73 Att −8.9% Def −4.3%
- MID P. Nebel Starter 6.62 Att −7.5% Def −3.7%
- DEF S. Widmer Starter 6.90 Def −6.9%
- DEF R. Zentner Rotation 6.96 Def −1.3%
- ATT S. Katompa Mvumpa Rotation 6.65 Att −2.0%
- MID O. Ruoppi Depth 6.48 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Schalke 04+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FSV Mainz 05-0.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
FC Schalke 04 · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 FC Schalke 04 wins0 draws0 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 5 May 2023FSV Mainz 052–3FC Schalke 04
- 9 Nov 2022FC Schalke 041–0FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Schalke 04 | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.60 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FC Schalke 04 | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.10 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Schalke 04 | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.60 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.80 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 10.22 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.30 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Hempel Germany · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.09league 3.46
Red cards0.45league 0.11
Cards 5+73%league 17%
Fouls26.4league 22.6
Penalties0.09league 0.13
Home wins64%league 52%
FC Schalke 042 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W5 Apr 26H · Karlsruher SC1–03
- W1 Aug 25H · Hertha BSC2–17
FSV Mainz 05No previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Schalke 045 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
FSV Mainz 055 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
3
5
0-15
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
7
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
