FC Schalke 04
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Schalke 0446.6%fair odds 2.15
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.96
SV Elversberg28.2%fair odds 3.55
Expected goals1.67 – 1.25total 2.92
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SV Elversberg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Schalke 04 ↓ · SV Elversberg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Schalke 04 goals, columns SV Elversberg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.44
- 2–19.4%10.64
- 1–08.4%11.94
- 2–07.5%13.34
- 1–27.0%14.18
- 0–16.1%16.30
- 0–06.0%16.76
- 2–25.9%16.98
- 3–15.2%19.11
- 0–24.2%23.70
Winning margin
10.6%
FC Schalke 04 by 3+
fair 9.44
14.3%
FC Schalke 04 by 2
fair 6.99
21.7%
FC Schalke 04 by 1
fair 4.61
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.96
16.1%
SV Elversberg by 1
fair 6.20
8.1%
SV Elversberg by 2
fair 12.42
4.0%
SV Elversberg by 3+
fair 25.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
FC Schalke 04 goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
SV Elversberg goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 46.6% | 47.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 24.6% | +0.7 pp |
| SV Elversberg win | 28.2% | 28.1% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 58.7% | -2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 60.6% | -2.0 pp |
| Expected goals FC Schalke 04 | 1.67 | 1.74 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals SV Elversberg | 1.25 | 1.30 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Schalke 04 win46.6%2.15
- Draw25.3%3.96
- SV Elversberg win28.2%3.55
- Double chance FC Schalke 04 or draw71.8%1.39
- Double chance FC Schalke 04 or SV Elversberg74.7%1.34
- Double chance SV Elversberg or draw53.4%1.87
- Draw no bet FC Schalke 0462.3%1.60
- Draw no bet SV Elversberg37.7%2.65
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.0%1.79
- Over 3.533.6%2.98
- Over 4.517.2%5.81
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.544.0%2.27
- Under 3.566.4%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes58.6%1.71
- No41.4%2.42
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- FC Schalke 04 win and yes24.0%4.17
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- SV Elversberg win and yes15.3%6.53
Team goals
- FC Schalke 04 over 0.581.2%1.23
- FC Schalke 04 over 1.549.8%2.01
- FC Schalke 04 over 2.523.5%4.25
- SV Elversberg over 0.571.5%1.40
- SV Elversberg over 1.535.7%2.80
- SV Elversberg over 2.513.2%7.56
- FC Schalke 04 clean sheet28.5%3.50
- SV Elversberg clean sheet18.8%5.32
- FC Schalke 04 win to nil22.6%4.43
- SV Elversberg win to nil12.8%7.78
Handicap
- FC Schalke 04 −1.524.9%4.02
- FC Schalke 04 −2.510.6%9.44
- SV Elversberg +1.575.1%1.33
- SV Elversberg +2.589.4%1.12
- SV Elversberg −1.512.0%8.31
- FC Schalke 04 +1.588.0%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored34
Favourite won55.9%
Avg chance given to result44.2%
1X2 Brier0.545
Over 2.5 called right79.4%
BTTS called right61.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 43.3% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.8% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 34 of 34 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5451 | 0.5539 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.2% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 55.9% | 55.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 34 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 34 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.