FC Schalke 04
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Schalke 04 were slight favourites.
FC Schalke 04 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SV Elversberg. FC Schalke 04 had 8.9 days of rest, SV Elversberg 7 and had to travel 243 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel243 kmRest days8.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Schalke 0447%
Draw24%
SV Elversberg29%
FC Schalke 0449%
Draw25%
SV Elversberg26%
FC Schalke 0447%
Draw24%
SV Elversberg29%
FC Schalke 0439%
Draw25%
SV Elversberg36%
FC Schalke 0448%
Draw23%
SV Elversberg29%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gelsenkirchen)
18°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 18 km/h
- Humidity 53%
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 18
Team strength
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
33
AttackIn forecast
44
50
DefenceIn forecast
37
58
Form indexContext
75
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSV Elversberg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Schalke 04SV Elversberg
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
2.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.36
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+1.16
33%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.33
ShotsContext
10.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
47%
On target shareContext
57%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
66%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
27%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
19.67
Shots allowedContext
24.67
8.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.33
BlocksContext
9.33
7.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
85%
Save rateContext
44%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
305
PassesContext
326
201
Accurate passesContext
253
66%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.87
7.00
FoulsContext
12.00
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+1.09
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.30
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
44%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
70%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
22%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.70
BlocksContext
4.22
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
76%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
389
PassesContext
363
295
Accurate passesContext
290
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.86
8.30
FoulsContext
11.00
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Schalke 04
LDW
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km893 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 4 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
SV Elversberg
WWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel243 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 75 · 6 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Schalke 04 |
SV Elversberg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 11 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 243 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 893 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 19.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Schalke 04
Confirmed XI
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
29É. Dina Ebimbe
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
SV Elversberg
Confirmed XI
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther
31M. Rohr
19L. Pinckert
30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba
43F. Keidel
39W. Campbell
10N. Darvich
25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Schalke 04
Absences are shown before kick-off
SV Elversberg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Schalke 04+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SV Elversberg-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Schalke 04 · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
SV Elversberg · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC Schalke 04 | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 FC Schalke 04 wins0 draws0 SV Elversberg wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 12 Apr 2026SV Elversberg1–2FC Schalke 04
- 8 Nov 2025FC Schalke 041–0SV Elversberg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Schalke 04 | SV Elversberg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 5.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| FC Schalke 04 | SV Elversberg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 5.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Schalke 04 | SV Elversberg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 8.33 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 12.00 | 10.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.67 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | SV Elversberg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.40 | 10.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.65
Red cards0.22league 0.09
Cards 5+39%league 24%
Fouls22.3league 22.6
Penalties0.44league 0.18
Home wins39%league 53%
FC Schalke 041 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D15 Mar 26H · Hannover 962–22
SV Elversberg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Feb 26A · Dynamo Dresden2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Schalke 043 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
SV Elversberg3 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
6
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
