FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
12th · 7 pts · 6 played
WWLLL
0–3Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
14th · 7 pts · 6 played
LWLDL
Our take
It was too close to call.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 31). FC St. Pauli had 15.1 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 15.9 and had to travel 484 km.
Away travel484 kmRest days15.1 · 15.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
FC St. Pauli36%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim38%
FC St. Pauli36%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim36%
FC St. Pauli37%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
FC St. Pauli36%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 84
Team strength
FC St. Pauli1899 Hoffenheim
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
20
AttackIn forecast
46
23
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. Pauli1899 Hoffenheim
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.33
ShotsContext
12.67
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
42%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
62%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.80
9.67
Shots allowedContext
10.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.75
BlocksContext
2.67
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
70%
Save rateContext
65%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
500
PassesContext
422
408
Accurate passesContext
338
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.83
FoulsContext
14.83
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
36%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
60%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.89
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.86
BlocksContext
2.70
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
77%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
448
PassesContext
411
364
Accurate passesContext
329
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.40
FoulsContext
13.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel484 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 484 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
25A. Dźwigała
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
10D. Sinani
28M. Pereira Lage
19M. Kaars
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
29B. Toure
7L. Avdullahu
18W. Burger
27A. Kramarić
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws0 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 14 Mar 2025FC St. Pauli1–01899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim0–2FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| FC St. Pauli | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 11.84 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.50 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| FC St. Pauli | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.78 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 10.50 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 2.90 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 4.32
Red cards0.10league 0.23
Cards 5+43%league 45%
Fouls20.1league 22.8
Penalties0.20league 0.42
Home wins40%league 40%
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Aug 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–22
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Apr 25H · FSV Mainz 052–04
- D8 Dec 24H · SC Freiburg1–11
- L19 Aug 23H · SC Freiburg1–20
- L22 Oct 22H · Bayern München0–23
- D23 Apr 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli6 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
