FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 32). Absences weigh more on FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 7.8 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 5.9 and had to travel 347 km.
Away travel347 kmRest days7.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC St. Pauli15%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen65%
FC St. Pauli17%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen61%
FC St. Pauli16%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen63%
FC St. Pauli11%
Draw17%
Bayer Leverkusen72%
FC St. Pauli16%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 47
Team strength
FC St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
79
20
AttackIn forecast
87
23
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliBayer Leverkusen
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
46%
On target shareContext
48%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
68%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.75
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
2.67
BlocksContext
2.33
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
480
PassesContext
523
386
Accurate passesContext
455
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.96
14.00
FoulsContext
10.25
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
11.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
41%
On target shareContext
46%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
63%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
421
PassesContext
537
340
Accurate passesContext
465
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.60
FoulsContext
11.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,067 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel347 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Sep | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 347 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,067 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
10D. Sinani
28M. Pereira Lage
27A. Hountondji
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
8R. Andrich
16A. Tape
17E. Ben Seghir
10M. Tillman
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws1 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Apr 2025FC St. Pauli1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 7 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| FC St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 7.25 | 9.50 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 6.75 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 8.78 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 4.22
Red cards0.21league 0.32
Cards 5+51%league 49%
Fouls24.4league 22.5
Penalties0.21league 0.54
Home wins45%league 43%
FC St. PauliNo previous matches with this referee.
Bayer Leverkusen2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Nov 23A · Werder Bremen3–01
- W26 Feb 22H · Arminia Bielefeld3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli4 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen4 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
