FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
15th · 23 pts · 24 played
LWLWW
0–0Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 34 pts · 24 played
LDWLW
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 8 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 6.9 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
FC St. Pauli30%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
FC St. Pauli23%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 122
Team strength
FC St. PauliEintracht Frankfurt
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
20
AttackIn forecast
54
23
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliEintracht Frankfurt
0.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.04
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
63%
Scored inContext
92%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.38
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
34%
On target shareContext
39%
5.96
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
56%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
2.61
OffsidesContext
1.87
11.33
Shots allowedContext
12.17
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.26
BlocksContext
2.83
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
69%
Save rateContext
57%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
424
PassesContext
482
334
Accurate passesContext
402
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.67
FoulsContext
10.04
9.96
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
8.60
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
48%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
60%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.78
BlocksContext
3.89
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
67%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
386
PassesContext
456
294
Accurate passesContext
380
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.69
8.90
FoulsContext
10.40
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel392 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 968 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
15Tomoya Ando
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
7J. Irvine
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
28M. Pereira Lage
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
34P. Collins
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
21N. Brown
6O. Højlund
16H. Larsson
8F. Chaïbi
19J. Bahoya
9J. Burkardt
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-4
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.64
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-4
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 2.58
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 0–6 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | D 3–3 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 H | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A |
| Points | 23 of 69 · 1.00 per game | 31 of 69 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 25 Oct 2025Eintracht Frankfurt2–0FC St. Pauli
- 11 May 2025Eintracht Frankfurt2–2FC St. Pauli
- 11 Jan 2025FC St. Pauli0–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.96 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 4.04 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 58% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 8% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| FC St. Pauli | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.65 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.87 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 9.52 | 8.50 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.42 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 3.91 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 6/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.11 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.70league 3.73
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+54%league 38%
Fouls21.7league 20.6
Penalties0.32league 0.37
Home wins44%league 46%
FC St. Pauli5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L29 Nov 25A · Bayern München1–31
- L17 May 25H · VfL Bochum0–20
- L22 Feb 25A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- W29 Nov 24H · Holstein Kiel3–12
- L15 Sep 24A · FC Augsburg1–33
Eintracht Frankfurt11 with this referee
Record5-4-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W16 Mar 25A · VfL Bochum3–11
- L1 Mar 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–41
- W10 Nov 24A · VfB Stuttgart3–23
- L24 Aug 24A · Borussia Dortmund0–21
- D18 May 24H · RB Leipzig2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli24 games · scored 23 · conceded 40
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
7
9
31-45
5
10
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
8
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt24 games · scored 48 · conceded 49
4
7
0-15
9
7
16-30
9
6
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
11
15
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
