FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC St. Pauli
17th · 14 pts · 20 played
LLDDL
2–1Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 39 pts · 20 played
WWDWW
FC St. Pauli16.9%fair odds 5.93
Draw20.7%fair odds 4.83
VfB Stuttgart62.4%fair odds 1.60
Expected goals1.06 – 2.18total 3.24
Likeliest score1–29.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC St. Pauli ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%10.14
- 1–19.5%10.50
- 0–29.3%10.72
- 0–18.1%12.38
- 1–37.2%13.94
- 0–36.8%14.75
- 2–25.2%19.17
- 2–14.8%20.90
- 0–04.4%22.72
- 1–43.9%25.57
Winning margin
1.7%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 57.79
4.4%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 22.48
10.7%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 9.36
20.7%
Draw
fair 4.83
22.6%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.43
18.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 5.29
21.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 4.77
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
FC St. Pauli goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli win | 16.9% | 17.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 20.7% | 22.3% | -1.7 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 62.4% | 60.0% | +2.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 57.1% | +5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 54.7% | +3.7 pp |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.06 | 0.99 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.18 | 1.98 | +0.20 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC St. Pauli win16.9%5.93
- Draw20.7%4.83
- VfB Stuttgart win62.4%1.60
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw37.6%2.66
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or VfB Stuttgart79.3%1.26
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw83.1%1.20
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli21.3%4.70
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart78.7%1.27
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.583.9%1.19
- Over 2.562.8%1.59
- Over 3.540.6%2.46
- Over 4.522.6%4.42
- Under 1.516.1%6.19
- Under 2.537.2%2.69
- Under 3.559.4%1.68
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.40
- Yes and over 2.548.9%2.05
- FC St. Pauli win and yes10.0%10.02
- Draw and yes16.3%6.14
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes32.1%3.11
Team goals
- FC St. Pauli over 0.565.3%1.53
- FC St. Pauli over 1.528.5%3.50
- FC St. Pauli over 2.59.1%10.97
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.588.7%1.13
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.564.1%1.56
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.537.2%2.69
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet11.3%8.85
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet34.7%2.88
- FC St. Pauli win to nil6.9%14.51
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil30.3%3.30
Handicap
- FC St. Pauli −1.56.2%16.18
- FC St. Pauli −2.51.7%57.79
- VfB Stuttgart +1.593.8%1.07
- VfB Stuttgart +2.598.3%1.02
- VfB Stuttgart −1.539.9%2.51
- FC St. Pauli +1.560.1%1.66
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored180
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.564
Over 2.5 called right62.8%
BTTS called right57.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 56 | 45.2% | 41.1% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.9% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 160 of 180 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5559 | 0.5528 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.5% | 57.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 160 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 180 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.