FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
17th · 14 pts · 20 played
LLDDL
2–1Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 39 pts · 20 played
WWDWW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 7 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 6 and had to travel 533 km.
Away travel533 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
FC St. Pauli17%
Draw21%
VfB Stuttgart62%
FC St. Pauli18%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart59%
FC St. Pauli18%
Draw21%
VfB Stuttgart61%
FC St. Pauli12%
Draw18%
VfB Stuttgart70%
FC St. Pauli18%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart60%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 55
Team strength
FC St. PauliVfB Stuttgart
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
20
AttackIn forecast
70
23
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliVfB Stuttgart
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.85
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
60%
Scored inContext
90%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.95
ShotsContext
15.25
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
33%
On target shareContext
38%
5.65
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
55%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.53
OffsidesContext
2.59
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.44
BlocksContext
3.45
3.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
68%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
440
PassesContext
504
349
Accurate passesContext
426
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.10
FoulsContext
10.10
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.70
ShotsContext
16.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
31%
On target shareContext
42%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
57%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.56
BlocksContext
3.30
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
70%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
398
PassesContext
496
306
Accurate passesContext
419
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.02
8.90
FoulsContext
9.90
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel533 km662 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,159 km | 662 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
15Tomoya Ando
25A. Dźwigała
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
7J. Irvine
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
20M. Rasmussen
10D. Sinani
19M. Kaars
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
3R. Hendriks
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.78
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 A | L 0–5 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 H | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 14 of 57 · 0.74 per game | 36 of 57 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws2 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 19 Sep 2025VfB Stuttgart2–0FC St. Pauli
- 3 May 2025FC St. Pauli0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 21 Dec 2024VfB Stuttgart0–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.15 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| FC St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 4.16 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 9.42 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 13/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.85 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 5/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| FC St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.33 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.40 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.76
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls23.0league 21.0
Penalties0.35league 0.35
Home wins31%league 44%
FC St. Pauli3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Nov 25A · SC Freiburg1–22
- W12 Apr 25A · Holstein Kiel2–14
- L15 Feb 25H · SC Freiburg0–11
VfB Stuttgart5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D22 Nov 25A · Borussia Dortmund3–31
- L28 Feb 25H · Bayern München1–35
- W23 Nov 24H · VfL Bochum2–02
- W2 Mar 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- D5 Dec 21H · Hertha BSC2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli20 games · scored 18 · conceded 34
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
3
9
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
VfB Stuttgart20 games · scored 37 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
