FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
18th · 26 pts · 33 played
LDLLL
1–3Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
16th · 26 pts · 33 played
LWDDL
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfL Wolfsburg. FC St. Pauli had 7 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 6.9 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC St. Pauli34%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg39%
FC St. Pauli37%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg36%
FC St. Pauli35%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg38%
FC St. Pauli27%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg46%
FC St. Pauli34%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg39%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 127
Team strength
FC St. PauliVfL Wolfsburg
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
20
AttackIn forecast
50
23
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliVfL Wolfsburg
0.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.06
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
61%
Scored inContext
76%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
9.79
ShotsContext
11.30
3.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
33%
On target shareContext
35%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.09
56%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.52
OffsidesContext
1.64
11.79
Shots allowedContext
14.94
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.55
3.54
BlocksContext
4.00
3.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.69
67%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
417
PassesContext
392
327
Accurate passesContext
310
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.30
FoulsContext
11.18
9.03
Fouls sufferedContext
8.61
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.40
ShotsContext
11.40
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
30%
On target shareContext
34%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
58%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.22
13.70
Shots allowedContext
15.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.80
BlocksContext
3.30
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
69%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
387
PassesContext
358
297
Accurate passesContext
270
77%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.79
8.20
FoulsContext
12.40
7.10
Fouls sufferedContext
6.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel136 km1,069 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 588 km | 1,069 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
15Tomoya Ando
5H. Wahl
25A. Dźwigała
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
7J. Irvine
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
24C. Metcalfe
27A. Hountondji
19M. Kaars
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
6J. Belocian
5Vinicius Souza
21J. Mæhle
24C. Eriksen
32M. Svanberg
26S. Kumbedi
17D. Pejčinović
11A. Daghim
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.06points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-8
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 1–8 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | L 3–6 AL 1–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 26 of 96 · 0.81 per game | 23 of 96 · 0.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins2 draws1 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 14 Jan 2026VfL Wolfsburg2–1FC St. Pauli
- 8 Mar 2025VfL Wolfsburg1–1FC St. Pauli
- 26 Oct 2024FC St. Pauli0–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.85 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 2.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 73% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.66 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 7.09 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 11.34 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 21/32 | 75% 24/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 16/32 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 11/32 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.46 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 13/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 7/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 12.10 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.80 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.69
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+50%league 37%
Fouls23.1league 20.2
Penalties0.28league 0.35
Home wins43%league 44%
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L15 Jan 25A · VfL Bochum0–14
VfL Wolfsburg11 with this referee
Record2-1-8
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds1
- L24 Jan 26A · FSV Mainz 051–32
- L21 Sep 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–10
- L25 Aug 24H · Bayern München2–32
- L10 Mar 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- L7 Oct 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli33 games · scored 28 · conceded 57
1
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
12
31-45
5
14
46-60
5
9
61-75
7
12
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg33 games · scored 42 · conceded 68
9
6
0-15
7
10
16-30
5
10
31-45
8
10
46-60
7
13
61-75
6
19
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
