FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC St. Pauli
18th · 26 pts · 33 played
LDLLL
1–3Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
16th · 26 pts · 33 played
LWDDL
FC St. Pauli34.1%fair odds 2.93
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.71
VfL Wolfsburg38.9%fair odds 2.57
Expected goals1.31 – 1.41total 2.72
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC St. Pauli ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.80
- 0–18.7%11.51
- 1–28.6%11.65
- 1–08.0%12.50
- 2–18.0%12.58
- 0–07.3%13.76
- 0–26.6%15.21
- 2–05.6%17.72
- 2–25.6%17.84
- 1–34.0%24.79
Winning margin
5.3%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 18.82
10.0%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 10.00
18.8%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 5.32
27.0%
Draw
fair 3.71
20.3%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 4.91
11.7%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 8.58
6.9%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 14.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
FC St. Pauli goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli win | 34.1% | 34.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.5% | -0.5 pp |
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 38.9% | 38.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 49.1% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.7% | 54.2% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.31 | 1.27 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 1.41 | 1.37 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC St. Pauli win34.1%2.93
- Draw27.0%3.71
- VfL Wolfsburg win38.9%2.57
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw61.1%1.64
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or VfL Wolfsburg73.0%1.37
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw65.9%1.52
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli46.7%2.14
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg53.3%1.88
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.576.1%1.31
- Over 2.551.0%1.96
- Over 3.528.9%3.46
- Over 4.513.9%7.18
- Under 1.523.9%4.18
- Under 2.549.0%2.04
- Under 3.571.1%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.7%1.79
- No44.3%2.26
- Yes and over 2.542.9%2.33
- FC St. Pauli win and yes17.0%5.90
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes19.1%5.25
Team goals
- FC St. Pauli over 0.572.9%1.37
- FC St. Pauli over 1.537.5%2.67
- FC St. Pauli over 2.514.4%6.94
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.575.6%1.32
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.541.1%2.43
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.516.9%5.92
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet24.4%4.09
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet27.1%3.69
- FC St. Pauli win to nil17.2%5.83
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil19.8%5.04
Handicap
- FC St. Pauli −1.515.3%6.53
- FC St. Pauli −2.55.3%18.82
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.584.7%1.18
- VfL Wolfsburg +2.594.7%1.06
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.518.5%5.39
- FC St. Pauli +1.581.5%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored297
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right62.3%
BTTS called right60.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 47 | 64.7% | 66.0% |
| 70–80% | 29 | 74.5% | 79.3% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 297 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5628 | 0.5582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.