FCSB
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 32). Absences weigh more on Fenerbahce. FCSB had 7 days of rest, Fenerbahce 4.1 and had to travel 454 km.
Away travel454 kmRest days7 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
FCSB26%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce50%
FCSB24%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce51%
FCSB24%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce51%
FCSB20%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce57%
FCSB27%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce48%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bucureşti)
No weather data yet
Referee · SerbiaNenad Minaković
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 20
Team strength
FCSB
Fenerbahce
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
36
AttackIn forecast
75
33
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FCSBFenerbahce
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
71%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
10.29
ShotsContext
14.43
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
42%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
60%
Box shareContext
40%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.83
17.14
Shots allowedContext
10.29
6.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.57
BlocksContext
2.71
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
70%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
372
PassesContext
481
295
Accurate passesContext
407
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.14
FoulsContext
9.43
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
3.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.94
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.11
ShotsContext
17.10
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
44%
On target shareContext
39%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.56
17.22
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.63
BlocksContext
3.75
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
69%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
372
PassesContext
498
295
Accurate passesContext
432
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.44
FoulsContext
10.20
12.89
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FCSB
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,603 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel454 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FCSB |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 454 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,603 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FCSB
Confirmed XI
32Ș. Târnovanu(G)
33R. Radunović
4D. Graovac
30S. Ngezana
28A. Pantea
42B. Alhassan
16M. Lixandru
20D. Politic
27D. Olaru
11D. Miculescu
93M. Thiam
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
18M. Müldür
24J. Oosterwolde
4Ç. Söyüncü
27Nélson Semedo
7Fred
5İ. Yüksek
94Talisca
9M. Aktürkoğlu
19Y. En-Nesyri
45D. Nene
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FCSB
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FCSB+1.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fenerbahce-1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
FCSB · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Fenerbahce · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FCSB | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FCSB | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.14 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| FCSB | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FCSB | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 10.58 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 3.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.42 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| FCSB | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 11.30 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.20 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nenad Minaković Serbia · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.13
Red cards0.15league 0.21
Cards 5+35%league 42%
Fouls25.3league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins65%league 51%
FCSBNo previous matches with this referee.
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Jul 23H · Zimbru5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FCSB7 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
5
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fenerbahce7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
FCSB9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
3
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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