Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 17:45 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce

0–3Full time

Nottingham Forest

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Fenerbahce had 5 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 7.9 and had to travel 2,613 km.

Away travel2,613 kmRest days5 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fenerbahce46%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.24

Fenerbahce47%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Fenerbahce45%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest29%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.22

Fenerbahce39%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest35%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.39

Fenerbahce45%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest29%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.20

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

RefereeSandro Schärer

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 36

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Nottingham Forest

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

75 AttackIn forecast 68

53 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Nottingham Forest

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.60 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.40 ShotsContext 15.90

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

42% On target shareContext 34%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

57% Box shareContext 58%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.38 BlocksContext 3.78

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

76% Save rateContext 63%

59% PossessionIn forecast 46%

490 PassesContext 408

424 Accurate passesContext 334

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.80 FoulsContext 11.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,613 km195 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Feb	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,807 km	195 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	0 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	4	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

18M. Müldür 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

17N. Kanté 6M. Guendouzi

9M. Aktürkoğlu 94Talisca 21Marco Asensio

26S. Chérif

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27S. Ortega(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

6I. Sangaré 8E. Anderson

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 21O. Hutchinson

19Igor Jesus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+1.2 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home No home games yet this season.

Nottingham Forest · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.88
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Fenerbahce	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.10
Conceded per game	0.80	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.20	2.88
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Nottingham Forest
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Fenerbahce	Nottingham Forest
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.50
Corners conceded	5.20	5.30
Match total	11.00	10.80
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.90	3.20
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sandro Schärer 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67

Red cards0.25

Cards 5+39%

Fouls22.7

Penalties0.28

Home wins36%

Fenerbahce1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D20 Feb 25A · Anderlecht2–23

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.