Fenerbahce vs VfB Stuttgart – 23 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 23 · 17:45 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 20th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

1–0Full time

VfB Stuttgart 21st · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 5.1 and had to travel 1,773 km.

Away travel1,773 kmRest days4 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fenerbahce43%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart31%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.32

Fenerbahce43%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Fenerbahce44%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart31%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.31

Fenerbahce36%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart38%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.48

Fenerbahce43%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.22

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

RefereeJakob Kehlet

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 13

Team strength

Fenerbahce

VfB Stuttgart

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

75 AttackIn forecast 70

53 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

VfB Stuttgart

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.66 Goals minus xGContext -0.99

100% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.00 ShotsContext 24.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

32% On target shareContext 27%

3.50 Shots in the boxContext 16.00

27% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 4%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.00 BlocksContext 2.50

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

67% Save rateContext 50%

59% PossessionIn forecast 62%

506 PassesContext 548

430 Accurate passesContext 481

85% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.00 FoulsContext 10.50

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.20 ShotsContext 16.60

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

33% On target shareContext 34%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

52% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.88 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.90 Shots allowedContext 10.10

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.75 BlocksContext 2.80

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

80% Save rateContext 78%

60% PossessionIn forecast 59%

506 PassesContext 532

436 Accurate passesContext 461

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.10 FoulsContext 11.10

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,773 km841 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct	5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,773 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	841 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

5İ. Yüksek 11E. Álvarez 21Marco Asensio

9M. Aktürkoğlu 19Y. En-Nesyri 45D. Nene

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33A. Nübel(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 14L. Jaquez

7M. Mittelstädt 6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor 22L. Assignon

11B. El Khannouss 27B. Bouanani

8Tiago Tomás

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
VfB Stuttgart+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	3.50	2.50	2.91
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Fenerbahce	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.44
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.70	2.44	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	78%
Over 2.5	60%	56%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	11%
Both teams scored	70%	44%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	44%
Failed to score	10%	11%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	9.00
Corners conceded	4.50	1.50
Match total	9.00	10.50	9.33
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	4.50	3.50	4.22
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Fenerbahce	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.70
Corners conceded	4.50	4.50
Match total	9.00	11.20	9.33
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.30
Opponent cards	2.70	1.80
Match total	5.20	3.10	4.22
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jakob Kehlet 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.31league 4.08

Red cards0.15league 0.14

Cards 5+38%league 42%

Fouls22.5league 25.7

Penalties0.23league 0.36

Home wins69%league 42%

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.