Ferencvarosi TC vs Ludogorets – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 17:45 Groupama Aréna, Budapest

Ferencvarosi TC 11th · 0 pts · 1 played L

First leg1–2 2–0Full time

Ludogorets 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ferencvarosi TC were slight favourites.

Ferencvarosi TC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Ferencvarosi TC. Ferencvarosi TC had 6.9 days of rest, Ludogorets 6.9 and had to travel 730 km.

Away travel730 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Ferencvarosi TC52%

Draw25%

Ludogorets23%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.11

Ferencvarosi TC54%

Draw25%

Ludogorets22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Ferencvarosi TC53%

Draw25%

Ludogorets22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.04

Ferencvarosi TC44%

Draw26%

Ludogorets30%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.24

Ferencvarosi TC52%

Draw25%

Ludogorets23%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.10

Over 2.5 55% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Budapest)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 153

Team strength

Ferencvarosi TC

Ludogorets

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

61 AttackIn forecast 27

56 DefenceIn forecast 28

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ludogorets

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ferencvarosi TC

Ludogorets

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.40 ShotsContext 15.20

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 34%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

73% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.56 OffsidesContext 1.80

12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.10

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.67 BlocksContext 4.13

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

68% Save rateContext 71%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

401 PassesContext 410

324 Accurate passesContext 340

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.82

15.90 FoulsContext 11.40

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,460 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ludogorets

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel730 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ferencvarosi TC	Ludogorets
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	730 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,460 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

3-5-2

99D. Gróf(G)

4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 27I. Cissé

20Cadu 23B. Ötvös 36G. Kanichowsky 15M. Abu Fani 25Č. Makreckis

75L. Joseph 11B. Yusuf

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Ludogorets Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39H. Bonmann(G)

3A. Nedyalkov 24O. Verdon 55I. Nachmias 17Son

23Deroy Duarte 30Pedro Naressi 14P. Stanić

77Erick Marcus 9K. Duah 11Caio Vidal

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ferencvarosi TC Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ludogorets Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ferencvarosi TC-1.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Ludogorets+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Ferencvarosi TC · Home No home games yet this season.

Ludogorets · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Ferencvarosi TC wins1 draws1 Ludogorets wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.75 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 25%

19 Feb 2026Ludogorets2–1Ferencvarosi TC
6 Nov 2025Ferencvarosi TC3–1Ludogorets
12 Aug 2025Ferencvarosi TC3–0Ludogorets
6 Aug 2025Ludogorets0–0Ferencvarosi TC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ferencvarosi TC	Ludogorets	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.87
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Ferencvarosi TC	Ludogorets	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.56
Conceded per game	1.44	1.78
Match goals	2.89	3.33	2.87
Over 1.5	89%	78%
Over 2.5	56%	67%	55%
Over 3.5	33%	44%
Both teams scored	78%	67%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Failed to score	11%	22%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ferencvarosi TC	Ludogorets	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	8.00	8.00	8.86
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	4.00
Match total	7.00	7.00	3.43
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Ferencvarosi TC	Ludogorets	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	3.30
Corners conceded	4.40	4.70
Match total	8.20	8.00	8.86
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.70
Opponent cards	2.10	2.80
Match total	4.80	4.50	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 153 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.63

Red cards0.12league 0.00

Cards 5+36%league 38%

Fouls21.8league 21.8

Penalties0.23league 0.00

Home wins39%league 13%

Ferencvarosi TC

No previous matches with this referee.

Ludogorets1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Aug 25A · Shkendija1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.