Ferencvarosi TC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ferencvarosi TC69.1%fair odds 1.45
Draw18.2%fair odds 5.48
Torreense12.7%fair odds 7.87
Expected goals2.40 – 0.95total 3.35
Likeliest score2–010.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Torreense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ferencvarosi TC ↓ · Torreense → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ferencvarosi TC goals, columns Torreense goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%9.88
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 1–18.4%11.87
- 3–08.1%12.35
- 1–08.0%12.48
- 3–17.7%13.02
- 4–04.9%20.58
- 4–14.6%21.70
- 2–24.6%21.97
- 0–03.9%25.39
Winning margin
26.7%
Ferencvarosi TC by 3+
fair 3.75
20.4%
Ferencvarosi TC by 2
fair 4.91
22.0%
Ferencvarosi TC by 1
fair 4.54
18.2%
Draw
fair 5.48
8.4%
Torreense by 1
fair 11.84
3.2%
Torreense by 2
fair 31.48
1.1%
Torreense by 3+
fair 92.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Ferencvarosi TC goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
Torreense goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC win | 69.1% | 68.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 18.2% | 18.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Torreense win | 12.7% | 12.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 65.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 56.7% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Ferencvarosi TC | 2.40 | 2.40 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Torreense | 0.95 | 0.96 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ferencvarosi TC win69.1%1.45
- Draw18.2%5.48
- Torreense win12.7%7.87
- Double chance Ferencvarosi TC or draw87.3%1.15
- Double chance Ferencvarosi TC or Torreense81.8%1.22
- Double chance Torreense or draw30.9%3.23
- Draw no bet Ferencvarosi TC84.5%1.18
- Draw no bet Torreense15.5%6.44
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.1%1.17
- Over 2.565.0%1.54
- Over 3.543.0%2.32
- Over 4.524.6%4.06
- Under 1.514.9%6.73
- Under 2.535.0%2.86
- Under 3.557.0%1.76
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.547.7%2.10
- Ferencvarosi TC win and yes34.3%2.92
- Draw and yes14.3%6.99
- Torreense win and yes7.6%13.21
Team goals
- Ferencvarosi TC over 0.590.9%1.10
- Ferencvarosi TC over 1.569.2%1.45
- Ferencvarosi TC over 2.543.0%2.32
- Torreense over 0.561.3%1.63
- Torreense over 1.524.5%4.08
- Torreense over 2.57.1%14.08
- Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet38.7%2.58
- Torreense clean sheet9.1%11.02
- Ferencvarosi TC win to nil34.8%2.87
- Torreense win to nil5.1%19.48
Handicap
- Ferencvarosi TC −1.547.0%2.13
- Ferencvarosi TC −2.526.7%3.75
- Torreense +1.553.0%1.89
- Torreense +2.573.3%1.36
- Torreense −1.54.3%23.50
- Ferencvarosi TC +1.595.7%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.