Fiorentina vs Cagliari – 24 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 22 Sat, Jan 24 · 17:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 17th · 17 pts · 21 played LWDDW

1–2Full time

Cagliari 15th · 22 pts · 21 played WLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 28). Fiorentina had 6.1 days of rest, Cagliari 6.9 and had to travel 536 km.

Away travel536 kmRest days6.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fiorentina53%

Draw26%

Cagliari21%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.93

Fiorentina54%

Draw25%

Cagliari21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Fiorentina53%

Draw26%

Cagliari21%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.92

Fiorentina46%

Draw28%

Cagliari27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.05

Fiorentina54%

Draw25%

Cagliari21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.03

Over 2.5 47% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 78

Team strength

Fiorentina

Cagliari

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

42 AttackIn forecast 31

34 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Cagliari

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.52 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

71% Scored inContext 67%

14% Clean sheetsContext 19%

13.43 ShotsContext 10.05

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

27% On target shareContext 33%

8.76 Shots in the boxContext 6.37

63% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.31 OffsidesContext 2.20

13.00 Shots allowedContext 13.24

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.14

3.24 BlocksContext 3.84

3.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.95

65% Save rateContext 74%

53% PossessionIn forecast 45%

415 PassesContext 374

349 Accurate passesContext 304

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.62 FoulsContext 14.81

15.76 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.10 ShotsContext 10.80

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

31% On target shareContext 33%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

68% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

3.80 BlocksContext 3.60

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

62% Save rateContext 70%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

463 PassesContext 393

401 Accurate passesContext 323

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.70 FoulsContext 15.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km160 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cagliari

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel536 km1,151 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	536 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	160 km	1,151 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora

10A. Guðmundsson 91R. Piccoli 19M. Solomon

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Cagliari Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Caprile(G)

6S. Luperto 26Y. Mina 32Zé Pedro

33A. Obert 4L. Mazzitelli 10G. Gaetano 8M. Adopo 2M. Palestra

94S. Esposito 9S. Kılıçsoy

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Cagliari Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Cagliari+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.90points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.50

Cagliari · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.55

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Cagliari
Bologna	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	L 0–2 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Lazio	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 A
Parma	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Udinese	W 5–1 H	D 1–1 A
Verona	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Juventus	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Genoa	D 2–2 A	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H
Lecce	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Inter	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 H
AS Roma	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Como	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Napoli	L 1–3 H	L 0–1 A
Torino	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Points	16 of 60 · 0.80 per game	21 of 60 · 1.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 Fiorentina wins2 draws0 Cagliari wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.71 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets43% · 0%

24 Aug 2025Cagliari1–1Fiorentina
23 Apr 2025Cagliari1–2Fiorentina
8 Dec 2024Fiorentina1–0Cagliari
23 May 2024Cagliari2–3Fiorentina
2 Oct 2023Fiorentina3–0Cagliari
23 Jan 2022Cagliari1–1Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.05
Conceded per game	1.52	1.43
Match goals	2.62	2.48	2.56
Over 1.5	76%	76%
Over 2.5	57%	48%	47%
Over 3.5	29%	19%
Both teams scored	67%	52%	49%
Clean sheets	14%	19%
Failed to score	29%	33%
Games	21	21

	Fiorentina	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.80	2.90	2.56
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.48	3.68
Corners conceded	4.67	5.00
Match total	9.15	8.68	8.78
Over 8.5	62% 13/21	47% 9/19
Over 9.5	57% 12/21	26% 5/19
Over 10.5	29% 6/21	21% 4/19
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.43
Opponent cards	2.33	1.95
Match total	4.71	4.38	3.94
Over 3.5	71% 15/21	67% 14/21
Over 4.5	57% 12/21	38% 8/21

	Fiorentina	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.80
Corners conceded	5.30	4.90
Match total	9.80	8.70	8.78
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.60
Opponent cards	2.70	1.80
Match total	5.10	4.40	3.94
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.81

Red cards0.12league 0.17

Cards 5+40%league 36%

Fouls24.2league 25.6

Penalties0.37league 0.31

Home wins42%league 37%

Fiorentina6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 1

L27 Dec 25A · Parma0–12
D9 Nov 25A · Genoa2–24
W26 Feb 24H · Lazio2–10
D17 Apr 23H · Atalanta1–11
W9 May 22H · AS Roma2–03

Cagliari2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Dec 24A · Venezia1–22
W5 Nov 23H · Genoa2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.