Fiorentina vs Genoa – 21 Mar 2027

Serie A Gameweek 29 Sun, Mar 21 · 17:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

VS— Compare

Genoa 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel197 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Fiorentina—%

Draw—%

Genoa—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Firenze)

Forecast from 6 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fiorentina 5 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fiorentina

Genoa

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

42 AttackIn forecast 23

34 DefenceIn forecast 44

20 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Genoa

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

71% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.43 ShotsContext 11.14

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.86

33% On target shareContext 26%

10.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.57

61% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 6%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.14 Shots allowedContext 15.00

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

2.00 BlocksContext 6.17

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

55% Save rateContext 61%

47% PossessionIn forecast 45%

390 PassesContext 380

328 Accurate passesContext 306

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.56

11.00 FoulsContext 9.43

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.90 ShotsContext 10.60

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60

32% On target shareContext 25%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

61% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 6%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.90 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.40 BlocksContext 5.38

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

70% Save rateContext 60%

47% PossessionIn forecast 48%

388 PassesContext 395

324 Accurate passesContext 322

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.62

11.10 FoulsContext 9.40

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,072 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Genoa LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel197 km266 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 OctA · AS Roma0–20.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Fiorentina2–11.3 xPts
L20 SepA · Parma1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Mar	7Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	197 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,072 km	266 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

Genoa Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs AS Roma (A) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

31D. Puczka 32M. Frendrup 71S. Wiafe 77M. Ellertsson

92S. El Shaarawy 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Genoa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.25

Genoa · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Genoa
Como	L 1–3 H	L 1–4 H
Napoli	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Frosinone	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 A
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Fiorentina wins3 draws1 Genoa wins

Goals per game2.11 – 0.89 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 11%

10 Oct 2026Genoa2–1Fiorentina
10 May 2026Fiorentina0–0Genoa
9 Nov 2025Genoa2–2Fiorentina
2 Feb 2025Fiorentina2–1Genoa
31 Oct 2024Genoa0–1Fiorentina
15 Apr 2024Fiorentina1–1Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Genoa
Scored per game	1.14	0.71
Conceded per game	2.43	1.86
Match goals	3.57	2.57
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	43%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	71%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	29%	43%
Games	7	7

	Fiorentina	Genoa
Scored per game	1.10	0.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	2.90	2.20
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	4.43
Corners conceded	3.86	4.57
Match total	9.15	9.00	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.14	1.86
Match total	4.14	4.86	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7

	Fiorentina	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.40
Corners conceded	3.90	4.10
Match total	8.40	8.50	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	3.50	4.10	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.